Israeli right-wing parties poised for victory in election

The political atmosphere in Israel is heading toward the far right, largely due to security concerns, according to experts and academics who agree a right-wing coalition government will likely be formed after the Feb. 10 polls.Â

Hawkish former premier and the leader of the right-wing Likud, Benjamin Netanyahu, is likely to be the star performer in the polls. His possible government, which may include current Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni’s centrist Kadima and Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s Labour Party, would have a tougher stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, experts told Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review.

"The current situation of increased support for the right is the general feature of the political course in Israel following increased violence in the region," Serhat Erkmen, an expert from the Middle East Strategic Research Organization, or ORSAM, said on Friday. Erkmen also recalled similar developments in Israel during the course of 1996 and 2001 elections.

"No matter which parties are involved in the government, it will have a tougher stance than the current one," he said. Journalist Hüsnü Mahalli agreed with Erkmen by expressing grave concerns over the rising support of right parties, evaluating the developments as being "too risky."

"Israeli politics is moving further toward the right when we take into account the increased support of (ultra-nationalist) "Yisrael Beitenou" (Israel is Our Home) whose leader Avigdor Lieberman has offered a transfer of Palestinians to Arab countries," Haidar Eid, a resident who lives in Gaza City’s Rimal district, told the Daily News by telephone.

Peace negotiations
Experts also shared their views with Daily News over the statements of Netanyahu, who said he would continue negotiations with moderate Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

"Israelis see Abbas as the official leader of Palestinians, so Netanyahu will continue negotiations with Abbas as he announced," Erkmen said. He also noted, however, Netanyahu would not prefer to make concessions to Palestinians in critical issues such as settlements. Mehmet BekaroÄŸlu, a former PM of the "Saadet Partisi" (Welfare Party) agreed with Erkmen. "A durable solution to the conflict does not seem likely in the future."

Professor Meliha Altunışık from Middle East Technical University, or METU, recalled that previous negotiations have fallen short of producing concrete results for the Palestinian people. "This is one of the major reasons behind the fact that Hamas has grown stronger as Palestinians have lost hope for a solution under Abbas," said Altunışık.

Experts also said the stance of the new U.S. administration would have a pivotal role concerning the developments in the troubled region. "Unless there is any clear pressure from Washington, Netanyahu will undertake a total blockade of peace process," Reuven Kaminer, an Israeli political analyst and a veteran peace activist, told the Daily News by phone.

"The only periods we have seen improvements in the thorny issue were when we witnessed the involvement of Washington," Altunışık said.

But they expressed different views in respect to upcoming relations between Turkey and Israel after the polls. Erkmen said a paradoxical situation over the stance of the right-wing parties toward Turkey as bilateral ties are high on the agenda particularly after PM Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s reaction toward Shimon Peres at the World Economic Forum summit Feb. 29. Ümit Özdağ, former president of Eurasia Strategic Studies Center, or ASAM, said he did not foresee crucial row between the two sides in the upcoming future.

LIKUD
Likud was formed by a merger of several right wing parties prior to the 1973 elections: Gahal, the Free Centre, the National List and the Movement for Greater Israel; hence the name "Likud," as the merger represented the consolidation of the right in Israel. Likud's victory in the 1977 polls was a major turning point in the country's political history, marking the first time the left had lost power. But, after ruling the country for most of the 1980s, the party has won only one Knesset election since 1992, though its candidate, Benjamin Netanyahu, did win the popular vote for premier in 1996. After a big win in the 2003 elections, a major split in 2005 saw Likud leader Ariel Sharon leave to form the new Kadima, with Likud slumping to fourth place in the 2006 polls. It also dealt a blow to its hawkish leader Netanyahu, who had sought to take the party back to its roots by basing its campaign on a hardline approach to security issues and a free-market economy. Israel’s recent military campaign in Gaza has boosted Likud's poll lead and Netanyahu is widely tipped to become Israel's next PM.

KADIMA
Kadima, which translates as "forward," was formed by former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon after he formally left the Likud in 2005 to establish a new party that would grant him the freedom to carry out a security plan that included a troop pullout from the Gaza Strip. When Sharon fell into a coma after suffering a massive stroke Jan. 4, acting Premier Ehud Olmert succeeded him. Without Sharon, there was uncertainty about the future of the party. The Olmert-led party snatched a narrow election victory taking 29 Knesset seats in the 2006 elections. Following the 2006 Lebanon War, Olmert's popularity ratings sharply fell and a corruption scandal led to his resignation. On Sept. 17, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni was elected leader of the Kadima, but Olmert remained PM after she failed to put together an alternative government, paving the way for the Feb. 10 elections. In the early stages, the policies of Kadima directly reflected the views of Sharon and his stated policies. But the debate over where Kadima lies on the political spectrum still lingers.

LABOUR PARTY
The center-left Labour Party, which is generally known in Israel as Avoda, has been one of Israel's two dominant parties since the foundation of the state in 1948. Driving expansion under leaders such as David Ben-Gurion and Golda Meir, Labour then forged land-for-peace accords with the Palestinians in the 1990s under Yitzhak Rabin and current Israeli President Shimon Peres, who left the party to support Kadima. In the 2006 elections the party placed second with 19 seats, a loss of 3 from the previous election. Labor joined Ehud Olmert's coalition government as the junior partner with Kadima. Labor was awarded a number of ministries including the defense ministry, which went to Labour leader, Amir Peretz. The Israeli army performed poorly in the second Lebanon War with Hezbollah and Peretz suffered faced most the blame for this performance, along with Olmert. In 2007, Labour members went to the polls in party primaries, elected former PM Ehud Barak as the leadership of the party again. With its leader managing the offensive in Gaza, Labour has also maintained an advanced poll-lead.

SHAS
Shas, or the Association of Torah-Observant Sephardis, was set up in 1984 by the former Sephardic Chief Rabbi of Israel, Ovadia Yosef, primarily to promote the interests of his Mizrachi ultra-Orthodox constituency. Shas, which is a strong advocate of Halakha Ğ the collective body of Jewish religious law Ğ is playing a pivotal role in providing a fulcrum for the operation of the state and its identity and has had a critical role in Israeli politics since the 2006 polls, in which it won 12 seats. The party and its leader Eli Yisha have prompted the snap Feb. 10 elections by rejecting to join Tzipi Livni’s government. In the 2006 vote, Shas ran an aggressive campaign that targeted the neo-conservative economic policies.

YISRAEL BEITEINU
Yisrael Beitenu, or Israel is Our Home, has a constituency among the largely unassimilated and generally hawkish Russian-speaking population in Israel. The ultra-nationalist party was formed by Avigdor Lieberman in 2006. Lieberman has a hardline rhetoric towards Arab citizens of Israel and other Palestinians. He defends Israel's 1.5 million Arabs and some of their land should be "swapped" for the West Bank Jewish settlements. The party became the fifth-largest parliamentary faction following the elections in 2006, winning 11 seats after more than half of the country's Russian immigrants voted for it. In January 2008, the party left the government in protest at peace talks with the Palestinian National Authority.

NATIONAL UNION NRP
The National Union is another of the right-wing political parties in the Knesset and consists of an alliance with the Ahi, Moledet and Tkuma parties. In the 2006 elections the party ran on a joint list with the National Religious Party, or NRP, winning nine seats. For the coming general elections, the National Union will be running separately and will be made up of the parties Moledet, HaTikva, Eretz YIsrael Shelanu, or Our Land of Israel, and some of Tkuma who split. Ahi have joined the Likud party, while the remainder of Tkuma have merged into the National Religious Party, which will now be named Bayit Yehudi, or Jewish Home.

OTHER PARTIES

- ARAB PARTIES:Arab Israelis make up almost 20 percent of Israel's population. They vote both for mainstream Israeli parties, including Labor, Likud and Meretz-Yachad, and for specifically Arab or anti-Zionist parties like the left-wing Hadash, the nationalist Balad and the United Arab List. The Israeli Central Elections Committee initially banned Arab parties from participating in the coming elections, but that decision was overturned by the Supreme Court. n GIL: The Pensioners' List, or Gil, was catapulted onto the center-stage of Israel politics after winning a shocking seven seats in the 2006 elections. n UTJ: United Torah Judaism is an alliance of Degel HaTorah and Agudat Israel, two small Israeli ultra-Orthodox political parties in the Knesset, the legislative branch of the Israeli government. The party was first formed in 1992. 

- MERETZ-YACHAD: It is a left-wing social democratic political party and is largely regarded as the political wing of the Peace Now movement. n THE RIGHT WAY: Its sole member is Elhanan Glazer who was one of three Knesset members to break away from Gil in 2008.