’Intelligence’ not necessarily intelligent
Güncelleme Tarihi:
Oluşturulma Tarihi: Kasım 26, 2008 00:00
There has been much discussion in recent days about a new public report by the CIA and its 15 junior partners that Turkey in 2025 will be sharply more religious and will be failing in its bid to join the European Union. Our reaction at the Hürriyet Daily News; Oh really?
The look into the crystal ball comes from the same people who in 2003 promised us the world would soon find troves of weapons of mass destruction in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Nothing more need be said on that.
Except, perhaps, that the insight in 2003 echoed the prescience of an earlier CIA report in 1989. That was the year that the CIA dismissed the likelihood of Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait.
That was about the same time the spy agency was also reporting to the White House on the growing economic clout, competitiveness and sustainability of the Soviet Union. Again, enough said.
Except, perhaps, that estimates on Soviet invincibility were issued a decade on from similar predictions of the durability of the Shah of Iran and the insignificance of an ayatollah named Khomeini. This assessment on Iran was made about the time the waning Soviet empire’s invasion of Afghanistan caught the CIA clueless. We also recall the CIA + 15’s policy response; recruitment of Islamic zealots to battle the communists. Among them was the young Saudi zealot Osama bin Laden. That epic blunder gave the English language a new word; "blowback." Indeed bin Laden did; and does.
Moving back further, we recall the CIA’s famed 1961 bungling in Cuba’s "Bay of Pigs" fiasco when the sages of the agency were outsmarted by those of Fidel Castro. A year later, this disaster was followed by the CIA’s assessment that the Soviet leader Nikita Kruschev would never ship missiles to the island, a mistake that almost caused nuclear war.
Any survey of the half-century history of the CIA + 15 would be remiss without mentioning the very first secret operation of the newly formed agency in 1946. This was a clandestine plan to ship guns to Romanian guerrilla fighters and support an anti-communist insurrection. But a man named Joseph Stalin got his team in place first, the weapons were interdicted and the would-be freedom fighters were all shot. This was, of course, mere prologue. Yes, the study has been much discussed in recent days. All we can say is that while such a forecast may well pass for "intelligence," it is hardly intelligent.
Let us keep in mind the authorship of this expensive if wearisome drivel. The CIA is often condemned in Turkey and the world for being evil. This is a separate debate. More importantly, even though these 16 agencies spend some $44 billion a year (2005 figures), the fact they are incompetent is inescapable. They always have been.
This new report should be treated accordingly.
Except, perhaps, that the insight in 2003 echoed the prescience of an earlier CIA report in 1989. That was the year that the CIA dismissed the likelihood of Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait.
That was about the same time the spy agency was also reporting to the White House on the growing economic clout, competitiveness and sustainability of the Soviet Union. Again, enough said.
Except, perhaps, that estimates on Soviet invincibility were issued a decade on from similar predictions of the durability of the Shah of Iran and the insignificance of an ayatollah named Khomeini. This assessment on Iran was made about the time the waning Soviet empire’s invasion of Afghanistan caught the CIA clueless. We also recall the CIA + 15’s policy response; recruitment of Islamic zealots to battle the communists. Among them was the young Saudi zealot Osama bin Laden. That epic blunder gave the English language a new word; "blowback." Indeed bin Laden did; and does.
Moving back further, we recall the CIA’s famed 1961 bungling in Cuba’s "Bay of Pigs" fiasco when the sages of the agency were outsmarted by those of Fidel Castro. A year later, this disaster was followed by the CIA’s assessment that the Soviet leader Nikita Kruschev would never ship missiles to the island, a mistake that almost caused nuclear war.
Any survey of the half-century history of the CIA + 15 would be remiss without mentioning the very first secret operation of the newly formed agency in 1946. This was a clandestine plan to ship guns to Romanian guerrilla fighters and support an anti-communist insurrection. But a man named Joseph Stalin got his team in place first, the weapons were interdicted and the would-be freedom fighters were all shot. This was, of course, mere prologue. Yes, the study has been much discussed in recent days. All we can say is that while such a forecast may well pass for "intelligence," it is hardly intelligent.
Let us keep in mind the authorship of this expensive if wearisome drivel. The CIA is often condemned in Turkey and the world for being evil. This is a separate debate. More importantly, even though these 16 agencies spend some $44 billion a year (2005 figures), the fact they are incompetent is inescapable. They always have been.
This new report should be treated accordingly.