ICG says Cyprus process offers best opportunity for peace and unity

The ICG said in a report that Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat and his Greek Cypriot counterpart Demetris Christofias have been demonstrating political will to make the current U.N.-mediated talks succeed, adding key players like Turkey are being constructive.   Â

"The outside world, particularly the U.N. and European Union (EU), needs to fully engage in support of a comprehensive settlement that will improve Cypriot security and prosperity, free Turkey to continue its movement into Europe and overcome a problem that is increasingly damaging to EU policy in the region and beyond," the report said.

The two leaders of the island brokered a landmark agreement on March 21 to enter fully-fledged peace talks after a series of meetings at the level of technical committees.

Early expectations that the talks could start in June appeared to be dissipating as both sides find the going sluggish at the committee level when faced with sensitive issues of property, territory and security.

The two leaders will meet on July 1 to assess progress made during preparatory talks before deciding whether to launch a fresh initiative to end the island's division.

The ICG said in the report that either on July 1 or at the latest in mid-July, the leaders should press forward and announce a Sept. 1, 2008, start for full-fledged negotiations.

"If this momentum is lost, it will be many years before a new window of opportunity emerges," Hugh Pope, the ICG's senior analyst, was quoted in the report saying.

"Both sides know this is only a beginning, but that it could be the last chance for reunification for the foreseeable future. Several dynamics encouraging partition have emerged since the Annan Plan was accepted by the Turkish Cypriots but rejected by the Greek Cypriots in 2004 referendums," the report said.

Failure in these negotiations would trigger a cycle of vengeful politics and mistrust on the island; further complicate EU-Turkey and EU-NATO relations; make the Cyprus problem a permanent irritant in the heart of the EU; and bring new military tensions to the island, it added.

"The EU, which risks real damage to many areas of policy if the Greek Cypriot-Turkish relationship breaks down, must engage more with the process, including making preparations now for financial instruments to support any settlement," it also said.

The EU opened entry talks with Turkey in 2005, but there has been little progress amid disagreements over Cyprus and opposition from France, which will take over the bloc's presidency from Slovenia on July 1 for six months, among other EU countries, including Austria and Germany. The bloc also suspended negotiations in eight policy chapters because of Turkey's refusal to open its ports to Greek Cypriot vessels.Â

"Distrust between Greek Cypriots and Turkey is a key obstacle. Ankara remains suspicious of the Greek Cypriots’ intentions, despite a turnabout in their position under Christofias, and Greek Cypriots remain convinced that Turkey is insincere and unreliable," the report also said.

The ICG report said that the position of Turkey has been crucial, given its geographic proximity, large garrison on the island and extensive support for the Turkish Cypriots, adding the Turkish government has been supporting the settlement process as it did in 2004, and the foreign ministry says it has been determined to reach a solution.

There are around 35,000 Turkish troops stationed in Cyprus, in addition to the Turkish Cypriot Peace Forces Command (KTBK), made up of 4,500 Turkish Cypriots.