Fury over, bitterness lingers in Azerbaijan

It is not just a coincidence that shortly after refusing to come to Turkey to attend an international conference, Azerbaijani President İlham Aliyev went to Moscow and called Russia "a strategic partner."

"If Turkey opens the borders with Armenia, what will be the difference for us between Turkey and Russia or Turkey and Iran?" said Asım Mollazade, the leader of the opposition Democratic Reform Party.

The news that Turkey was preparing to normalize its relations with Armenia has sent shockwaves through the Azerbaijani society.

In reality, not a single Azerbaijani official has talked openly about the government’s discontent on the possibility of Turkey normalizing its relations with Armenia without substantial progress on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. But the press has been fiercely criticizing the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, and everyone in Turkey knew that the media campaign was orchestrated by the Aliyev administration.

"If the government does not want, there won’t be any discussion. But lately, there was discussion everywhere, in universities, in the press. Everyone was talking against Turkey. There has been a campaign that Turkey has betrayed Azerbaijan. The government was behind it," said Arastun Orujlu, the head of East-West Research Center.

But the government is not alone in its frustration vis a vis Turkey. The opposition also shares the government’s resentment toward Turkey. "Opening the borders without a condition will be against the interest of both Turkey and Azerbaijan. Normalization with Armenia without progress on Nagorno-Karabakh will damage bilateral relations," said Nesib Nesibli, a member of parliament from the opposition Musavat Party.
"In Azerbaijan, anything else is black and white between the government and the opposition. But on the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh and relations with Turkey, they are united," said a foreign observer who asked to remain anonymous.

Situation calmed but bitterness remains
Although recent statements from Turkish officials that the borders will not be opened before progress is made on Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave under Armenian occupation, seem to have calmed Azerbaijanis, the bitterness remains.

Turkey and Azerbaijan have cultural, linguistic and religious affinity. Their close relations and cooperation are often expressed by the motto "one nation, two states." Although Turkey recognized the independence of Armenia after the demise of Soviet Union, it has never established diplomatic relations because of Yerevan’s efforts to gain recognition of claims of genocide as well as its territorial claims. Armenia does not recognize treaties signed under Soviet rule that mark the borders in the Caucasus.

Turkey closed its border with Armenia when Armenia began its occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh and the regions surrounding the enclave. Until recently, Turkey tied normalizing its relations with Armenia to the solution in Nagorno-Karabakh.

But over time this connection has weakened. Under the pressure of several parliamentary decisions that recognize Armenia’s claims of genocide, Turkey has sought to normalize relations with Armenia. Turkish President Abdullah Gül’s visit to Armenia in September was a turning point, as secret talks between the two countries that had started before the visit gained new momentum. The two sides are said to have reached an agreement upon a protocol that draws a timetable for normalizing relations. But it has been unclear to what degree a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been included in the protocol.

Azerbaijanis have hard time understanding the benefit of opening the borders without visible progress in their talks with Armenia. "There is no reason to give such a gift to the Armenians at this stage," said Nesibli.

"Whatever the level of relations between Turkey and Armenia, the Armenian diaspora will not stop its efforts for the recognition of genocide claims all over the world," said Mollazade. "I will be the first one to argue for the opening of the borders if I knew it would be for the benefit of Turkey."

He dismissed claims that trade with Armenia would flourish as a result of opening of the borders. "The trade between Turkey and Azerbaijan is incomparable with the potential trade with Armenia," he said.

"Azerbaijan has been asked not to go to war with Armenia to get back its land. But we have been waiting for the past 17 years. The only peaceful way for us to convince the Armenians to release those lands is Turkey," he added.

He also dismissed claims that improving relations between Turkey and Armenia would lead to progress in Armenian-Azerbaijani talks. "Yerevan was ready for talks. But after there were signs of a breakthrough with Turkey, our negotiations started to drag on," he said.

An oil- and gas-producing country, Azerbaijan’s economy has seen steady growth since the late 1990s. It is one of the few countries in the region not affected seriously by the global economic crisis. Nagorno-Karabakh remains the only stumbling block in its economic development and integration in the world political system.

"Nagorno-Karabakh is the No. 1 issue in this country. That’s why the public outcry about Turkey has been quite ubiquitous. There is certainly a sense of being abandoned by the big brother," said a foreign observer.

"I can’t believe Turkey can do that," said Ennagi İsmailoglu, a taxi driver, adding: "Our relations will be seriously damaged if Turkey opens the border with Armenia."