Oluşturulma Tarihi: Ağustos 15, 2008 13:12
A week has passed since the start of the conflict between Russia and Georgia, and I can now tell who pushed Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and why.
The situation is slowly starting to become more clear.
United States President Bush had said that Russia "risked losing U.S. support" by attacking Georgia.
U.S. Foreign Minister Condoleezza Rice also made similar remarks. And we saw the first concrete signals of this come a time when these statements began to mention the exclusion of Russia from the international community.
A meeting scheduled to be held in August at the beginning of this week between Russia and NATO was canceled.
The U.S. also took the decision to call off a planned Russian-NATO joint military exercise to be held over the North Sea.
Following these two signals, we also began to hear reports that Russia could be excluded from the G8.
* * *
Today, certain circles claim that Russia emerged stronger from the recent conflict with Georgia.
They say that Putin has emerged as the only prominent leader and the Russian army, previously in a quagmire in Chechnya, showed it has recovered and proved this in Georgia.
Yes, maybe Russia proved itself against Georgia, but it lost ground in its strategic aim of being the global partner of U.S and Europe.
Try to remember the consequences of when Russia halted the flow of gas to Ukraine. Even its closest European allies took the decision to look at alternative energy sources. Wasn't the Nabucco pipeline the result of this?
Russia has now weakened its previously strong hand against the United States with the deal on the table on the Iranian issue.
Now the United States has a trump against Russia. This trump was a gift from Russia to Washington in Georgia.
And also this happened at time, when the voices from behind the stage were saying “time is tight” grew louder regarding Iranian nuclear crisis.
* * *
The visit of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Istanbul also positions Turkey as a part of the high tensioned nuclear crisis process.
The interesting side of this situation is that this visit holds a different meaning for both Turkey and Iran.
The Iranian president will reveal that his country has good relations with a strong country like Turkey at a time when walls are being established to exclude them from the rest of the world.
The meaning for Turkey is different.
Iran did not respond to the latest solution proposal in a way that opens the way for diplomatic efforts to be implemented. Following, it was said that Turkey could play the role of facilitator, but not that of mediator. At this point, Turkey would tell Iran, as its neighbor, of the seriousness of the international community and ask them to exert some effort to reach consensus.
Ahmadinejad, playing at wasting time, awaits the outcome of the U.S. elections, while the war lobby in Israel steps up its pressure.
Until now, Russia, one of the most influential actors of this process, was the main player helping to control reactions against Iran.
Georgia gave the trump to Russia's counterparts to force Russia into a corner.
I am sure Putin will also contemplate the actions of those who pushed Saakashvili after the first dust settles.
