Ferai Tinc: Elections in Iraq; Ankara-Washington-Baghdad traffic increases
Güncelleme Tarihi:
Oluşturulma Tarihi: Aralık 12, 2005 13:03
The real reason behind the extreme interest shown in Turkey by US security and intelligence forces in recent days is the upcoming elections in Iraq. Everything up for argument is currently tied to this subject. The result from Thursday's elections will not only affect Iraq, but the entire region in which we live.
US Defense Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, has announced that immediately following the elections, 20 thousand foreign soldiers will be pulled from the country.
The quickly eroding US public support for a US presence in Iraq has forced the administration in Washington to take some action. And so, the return of some of the soldiers to their homeland will be as much a gesture for the American people as it is for the people of Iraq. The new government in Iraq will need to have legitimacy in order to have any effect over all the troubles in the country. This is why all the effort has been put out in trying to get the Sunnis to take part in elections.
And so, the post-war period in Iraq is beginning. We are entering an even more critical period now. This period following the elections will show whether or not Iraqi land will remain united in the future.
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Just because the Sunnis may participate in these elections does not mean that their problems have been solved. It is very critical that the power balance between Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds be leveled. Sunni leaders have to be convinced that they will have an effect in the parliament and in the new government. Until that happens, the calming down of events in the country, and the settling in of any sort of stability will be impossible.
The formation of the new government is not the most difficult aspect of the post-election period. The actual focus of bargaining in this period will be control over and profits from the petrol regions of Iraq. The Sunnis will insist on changes to the new Iraqi Constitution, which currently puts the control over the petrol in the hands of the Shiites and the Kurds. It will not be easy to meet the Sunni demands, especially during a period when the cry for separation rings from both Shiite and Kurdish regions.
And so, this will be the most critical question in the post-election period. And if the Sunni demands are not met?
*****
It is clear that the chance that Iraq's land will be divided will only speed up if the power balance between Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds in the country is not dealt with in the post-election period. And it is not difficult to guess where Iraq will drag the entire region, especially as it will have turned into a black hole for terror and instability.
In the run-up to these elections, diplomatic traffic between Ankara-Washington-Baghdad has increased.
The quickly eroding US public support for a US presence in Iraq has forced the administration in Washington to take some action. And so, the return of some of the soldiers to their homeland will be as much a gesture for the American people as it is for the people of Iraq. The new government in Iraq will need to have legitimacy in order to have any effect over all the troubles in the country. This is why all the effort has been put out in trying to get the Sunnis to take part in elections.
And so, the post-war period in Iraq is beginning. We are entering an even more critical period now. This period following the elections will show whether or not Iraqi land will remain united in the future.
*****
Just because the Sunnis may participate in these elections does not mean that their problems have been solved. It is very critical that the power balance between Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds be leveled. Sunni leaders have to be convinced that they will have an effect in the parliament and in the new government. Until that happens, the calming down of events in the country, and the settling in of any sort of stability will be impossible.
The formation of the new government is not the most difficult aspect of the post-election period. The actual focus of bargaining in this period will be control over and profits from the petrol regions of Iraq. The Sunnis will insist on changes to the new Iraqi Constitution, which currently puts the control over the petrol in the hands of the Shiites and the Kurds. It will not be easy to meet the Sunni demands, especially during a period when the cry for separation rings from both Shiite and Kurdish regions.
And so, this will be the most critical question in the post-election period. And if the Sunni demands are not met?
*****
It is clear that the chance that Iraq's land will be divided will only speed up if the power balance between Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds in the country is not dealt with in the post-election period. And it is not difficult to guess where Iraq will drag the entire region, especially as it will have turned into a black hole for terror and instability.
In the run-up to these elections, diplomatic traffic between Ankara-Washington-Baghdad has increased.