Fatih Cekirge: Time for Turkey to focus on local elections and constitution

Turkey focuses on the local election and constitutional referendum

 

Seven months remain until the local elections... If we start the count down from today and exclude summer’s hottest month August and September, the month of Ramadan, then only five months remain until the elections to be held in March, 2009.Â

 

If we also take into consideration the difficulties of area studies due to the cold weather of January and February; only three months remain for any intensive election efforts.

 

I guess the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will focus all its strength on the local elections from now on... After so many political debates, the local elections could now be assessed as a "referendum" for the AKP... A referendum that makes the position of the AKP clear regarding the headscarf issue, constitutional amendments and for being a party punished for becoming the focal point of anti-secular activates, before society...

 

So, what will the AKP do?

 

The AKP will push to win the elections and take over the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party's (DTP) dominance in Turkey's southeastern provinces, particularly Diyarbakir. The Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) have no chance in this region.

 

The AKP will also push to take over some of the symbolic provinces around the country, including Izmir, Eskisehir and Mersin, as well as the symbolic district of the capital, Ankara's Cankaya, from the CHP and the Democratic Leftist Party (DSP). The CHP is being very careful regarding the party candidate for Izmir, as they have not been able to find a satisfactory candidate since the former representative, Ahmet Pristina, passed away. Pristina took the post with a 48 percent majority win and the CHP should target gaining half of the votes in this city.

 

The AKP said it will not nominate Ankara’s current mayor, Melih Gokcek, as a candidate. But Gokcek is so self-assured that he is even considering nominating his son to run for the Cankaya post.

Istanbul: The candidate to be nominated by CHP is very important. The candidate must be young and dynamic. The AKP is likely to continue with its current representative, Mayor Kadir Topbas. The AKP also targets gaining power in the CHP controlled districts of Bakirkoy, Besiktas, Kadikoy and Avcilar.Â

LEADER'S PERSPECTIVE

Tayyip Erdogan (AKP): He must increase his votes in provinces such as Istanbul, Ankara, Bursa, Antalya, and Erzurum. Having won the elections in these cities, he will not face a major problem if his support falls. It will be very telling if he increases his votes.

 

Deniz Baykal (CHP): He will face very harsh criticize if he fails to increase his votes in three major cities, Istanbul, Izmir, and Ankara, lose the elections in Izmir and decrease his votes across the country. The post-Baykal term discussion begins. But if he can manage to win the elections in Istanbul, it seems very difficult; he would have made a major leap.

 

Devlet Bahçeli (MHP): He must increase his votes. He needs to win the election in at least three Anatolian cities, including Erzurum. If he fails to gain this support, debates regarding his leadership are likely to start and he will face some difficulties.

 

Yes, the local elections are our next on the agenda... The atmosphere heats up in local arenas...