Fate of Mideast peace up to interlocking deals
Güncelleme Tarihi:
AP
Oluşturulma Tarihi: Mart 18, 2009 00:00
JERUSALEM - A continued impasse over a prisoner swap between Israel and Hamas may have far-reaching consequences for the war-battered Gaza Strip and a possible deal could shore up efforts to clinch a sustained truce. Further developments may also give a boost to Palestinian reconciliation talks, which are vital to Gaza reconstruction
The fate of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has become a collection of moving parts that somehow need to come together in a single package: an Israel-Hamas prisoner swap, a truce for Gaza, and new governments on both sides of the firing line that could pursue peace.
Prospects for success in prisoner swap negations decreased significantly, when Egyptian-mediated talks for a prisoner swap - exchanging a captured Israeli soldier for hundreds of jailed Palestinian militants - ended without agreement, according to Israeli officials, dashing hopes that a deal was close. Such a swap could have helped pave the way for a long-term Israel-Hamas truce deal that in turn might have opened the Gaza Strip's blockaded borders to allow for reconstruction after Israel's punishing offensive there.
Rebuilding Gaza will almost surely also depend on the success of current reconciliation talks in Egypt between Hamas militants and the Western-backed Fatah movement in efforts to reverse the results of a brief 2007 civil war that left rival Palestinian governments in Gaza and the West Bank.
Reconciliation process
Getting Hamas and Fatah to reconcile is also key to the success of U.S.-backed Mideast peace talks, as it's unlikely Israel would sign on to a deal if moderates are in control of just the West Bank while militants rule Gaza. The latest news from Egypt is that the Hamas-Fatah talks are not going well.
The biggest question now is whether Israel would sign a deal under any circumstances. Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu, a political hawk, early Monday initialed a coalition agreement with the ultra-nationalist Yisrael Beitenu Party - increasing the likelihood that Israel's next government will spurn peace talks. The bottom line is that the obstacles to Palestinian unity, open borders for Gaza and a peace deal that would usher in Palestinian statehood seem as formidable as ever.
Contacts in Cairo between Israel and Hamas for a swap have ended without agreement after Hamas hardened its position and retracted earlier understandings, Israel said Monday. The statement said that "during the negotiations, Hamas hardened its positions, retracted understandings reached during the last year and raised extreme demands, despite generous Israeli offers." But Hamas appeared to hold out hope yesterday for a last-minute deal with Israel, saying some progress had been made in talks despite Israel's claim that the militant group had hardened its position.
Some Mideast watchers had predicted Hamas would be eager to reach a deal before Netanyahu takes office. The Israeli politician is putting together what is shaping up to be a right-wing coalition that will almost surely be less accommodating to Hamas demands - even though a broad-based Israeli unity government including centrists is also still possible. A prisoner swap could have strengthened Hamas by creating the impression that militants and their violent acts are the best way to get Israel to budge. However, a swap could also help boost Fatah by securing the release of that group's most popular politician, Marwan Barghouti.
For Hamas, a prisoner swap would also be an important step toward ending Israel's crushing economic blockade of Gaza. Following a bloody Israeli military offensive in Gaza earlier this year, Hamas is desperate to reopen the area's borders to allow in reconstruction supplies. Israel says it won't enter a long-term truce deal easing the sanctions until Gilad Schalit comes home.
Even if a prisoner swap could somehow be salvaged and lead to a permanent truce deal for Gaza, it's unlikely all the money and materials needed to rebuild the territory could come in unless Fatah regains a foothold there. Fatah and Hamas factions meeting in Cairo agreed over the weekend that Palestinian elections should be held in the West Bank and Gaza by next January. But that appeared to be their only agreement amid many disputes - including whether Hamas could accept the key demands that it renounce violence and honor past peace accords with Israel.
If Hamas sticks by its refusal to recognize Israel, as seems likely, a new right-wing government could use that as an excuse to shun a future Palestinian government, and perhaps even intensify the blockade of Gaza.
Prospects for success in prisoner swap negations decreased significantly, when Egyptian-mediated talks for a prisoner swap - exchanging a captured Israeli soldier for hundreds of jailed Palestinian militants - ended without agreement, according to Israeli officials, dashing hopes that a deal was close. Such a swap could have helped pave the way for a long-term Israel-Hamas truce deal that in turn might have opened the Gaza Strip's blockaded borders to allow for reconstruction after Israel's punishing offensive there.
Rebuilding Gaza will almost surely also depend on the success of current reconciliation talks in Egypt between Hamas militants and the Western-backed Fatah movement in efforts to reverse the results of a brief 2007 civil war that left rival Palestinian governments in Gaza and the West Bank.
Reconciliation process
Getting Hamas and Fatah to reconcile is also key to the success of U.S.-backed Mideast peace talks, as it's unlikely Israel would sign on to a deal if moderates are in control of just the West Bank while militants rule Gaza. The latest news from Egypt is that the Hamas-Fatah talks are not going well.
The biggest question now is whether Israel would sign a deal under any circumstances. Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu, a political hawk, early Monday initialed a coalition agreement with the ultra-nationalist Yisrael Beitenu Party - increasing the likelihood that Israel's next government will spurn peace talks. The bottom line is that the obstacles to Palestinian unity, open borders for Gaza and a peace deal that would usher in Palestinian statehood seem as formidable as ever.
Contacts in Cairo between Israel and Hamas for a swap have ended without agreement after Hamas hardened its position and retracted earlier understandings, Israel said Monday. The statement said that "during the negotiations, Hamas hardened its positions, retracted understandings reached during the last year and raised extreme demands, despite generous Israeli offers." But Hamas appeared to hold out hope yesterday for a last-minute deal with Israel, saying some progress had been made in talks despite Israel's claim that the militant group had hardened its position.
Some Mideast watchers had predicted Hamas would be eager to reach a deal before Netanyahu takes office. The Israeli politician is putting together what is shaping up to be a right-wing coalition that will almost surely be less accommodating to Hamas demands - even though a broad-based Israeli unity government including centrists is also still possible. A prisoner swap could have strengthened Hamas by creating the impression that militants and their violent acts are the best way to get Israel to budge. However, a swap could also help boost Fatah by securing the release of that group's most popular politician, Marwan Barghouti.
For Hamas, a prisoner swap would also be an important step toward ending Israel's crushing economic blockade of Gaza. Following a bloody Israeli military offensive in Gaza earlier this year, Hamas is desperate to reopen the area's borders to allow in reconstruction supplies. Israel says it won't enter a long-term truce deal easing the sanctions until Gilad Schalit comes home.
Even if a prisoner swap could somehow be salvaged and lead to a permanent truce deal for Gaza, it's unlikely all the money and materials needed to rebuild the territory could come in unless Fatah regains a foothold there. Fatah and Hamas factions meeting in Cairo agreed over the weekend that Palestinian elections should be held in the West Bank and Gaza by next January. But that appeared to be their only agreement amid many disputes - including whether Hamas could accept the key demands that it renounce violence and honor past peace accords with Israel.
If Hamas sticks by its refusal to recognize Israel, as seems likely, a new right-wing government could use that as an excuse to shun a future Palestinian government, and perhaps even intensify the blockade of Gaza.