Ertugrul Ozkok: Backroom chatter in Washington, DC

The person that told me about this meeting wasn't sure about the date, but mentioned October 26 as a likelihood. Apparently, inside circles in Washington already know about this invitation. But the real development which was whispered into my ear was something that came after this information: apparently, General Buyukanit will be meeting with Vice President Dick Cheney. I could not exactly confirm this meeting. But a top Turkish authority told me that it would "most likely" be taking place.

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Meanwhile, in Turkey last week, President Ahmet Necdet Sezer made a speech before the Turkish Parliament in which he said "there might be a shawl thrown over certain freedoms" in the name of protecting democracy. Now, even though President Sezer is in his last year of power as president, there is no such thing as the "lame duck" status that US presidents have in their last years. Which is why we can attack just as much importance to his words as we would have had he said them in his first year as president. Backing this up further, just a few hours before Prime Minister Erdogan was to have his meeting with President Bush in the Oval Office, General Buyukanit made a speech before the Istanbul Military Academy in Maslak in which he reasserted in strong words that there was in fact a "threat of reactionaryism" in Turkey. Now Prime Minister Erdogan had, on the plane to the US, made some comments about General Buyukanit, though only with the very lightest of expressions: "No one should think that it's alright if the economy starts to sink" he said, aiming this economic warning at the military's top commander. But at Georgetown University, when the Prime Minister learned of General Buyukanit's speech in Istanbul, his own comments indicated a slide towards the political: "The military is connected to elected representatives of the country" he asserted.

Let me express my own views here on this all. When the Prime Minister of a country is outside the country for an important meeting, these sorts of speeches (of the kind General Buyukanit gave) do not look good.

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So, what exactly will the Prime Minister do from this point onward? Will he ignore the President's speech as one coming from a man headed out of office in a year? And what about the speech by the top general of the armed forces?

As far as I am concerned, the Prime Minister needs to take these warnings seriously. Don't misunderstand me, I am not asserting that "a shawl needs to be thrown over certain freedoms." I am talking about the "spiritual health" and stability of Turkey. The Prime Minister needs to take time for a serious analysis of this situation. I do not think that any reasonable person in Turkey would stand for another February 28 type of atmosphere. But there is a very serious atmosphere of lack of trust right now. A large section of people in the country believe that the "threat of reactionaryism" is great right now. Who knows how many people we are talking about-it is useless to try and estimate. After all, democracy is not only a "majority" regime, but a system of checks and balances. Even a party which has come to power with 70% of the vote must share its power with the society's many various organizations.

So here is what I say: Turkey does not have the luxury of straying from the road to democracy. But there is a need for some sort of cease-fire at the governing head of the country. And the Prime Minister, for his part, must adopt a style and methods which will erase the fears of a "reactionary threat" that certain sectors of society hold near these days. If this happens, the civilian administration which runs the country will be that much stronger.

On the way to the US, on the plane, the Prime Minister was very soft-spoken on a number of topics. If he were to make this the general style of his administration, as well as rein in some of his out-of-line AKP ministers, and maybe pay more attention to some of the cosmetic factors in the appointments he makes, Turkey will continue on down its road with great motivation and strength.