Engagement comes before marriage
Güncelleme Tarihi:
Oluşturulma Tarihi: Haziran 23, 2009 00:00
While it may come as a surprise to Pierre Ménat, the European Union chief at the French Foreign Ministry, we agree with an essential part of his premise on the state of Turkey’s EU negotiations. It is time to wake up.
Yes, growing anti-immigrant sentiment in France and elsewhere and the failing state of Europe’s economy make the notion of a further expansion of the 27-member EU hard to swallow. The EU of today is not the EU of 2005, when Turkey’s talks began in earnest. But neither is today’s Europe, or the world for that matter, anything remotely resembling what it will be a decade or so hence.
This is what we all need to "wake up" to. Yes, when Turkey ultimately gets through the myriad reforms to law, policy and social standards that are part of the current deal, the EU powers that be may well say: "sorry." Similarly, Turkey may well dot every "i" and cross every "t" required for EU accession and then say: "thanks but no thanks."
We found it interesting in our story yesterday on Ménat's skepticism that a principle driver of French reticence is fear of immigration. Fair enough. But tomorrow, France and other countries with declining populations will need not just a handful, but millions of immigrants to keep their economies afloat. At this stage of the EU "project" it is not entirely clear that the "Eurozone" of currency will survive. It is not clear that the so-called "Lisbon Treaty," effectively an EU constitution, will meet with requisite approval in a second referendum in Ireland. Today, the United Kingdom has a very "pro-EU" government. Tomorrow it may well not.
What all sides need to wake up to is that the EU is going through very dynamic times. So is Turkey. As today’s column by Nuray Mert makes clear, much is in flux. But too often, negotiations with Turkey seem driven by assumptions that the relative positions and reciprocal needs are static and unchanging.
We can still think of theoretical reasons the French may still harbor skepticism toward Turkey in a decade or more. We can certainly think of reasons that Turkey might decided to keep its sovereignty to itself at some distant point on the calendar.
But now, Turkey is not negotiating marriage. We just want to give this engagement period, with all the implicit exit options, a chance to work. France’s blocking of the technical opening of negotiating chapters (so far just 10 of 35 are under discussion) does not serve Ménat's dream of fashioning some "alternative" short of full membership.
Rather, it makes the kind of "realistic" conversation he seeks even more problematic down the road.
Let’s explore our engagement with the EU today. When we get closer to marriage, we can iron out terms of a pre-nuptial agreement. Or we can call the wedding off. But let’s wake up to just what we are negotiating.
This is what we all need to "wake up" to. Yes, when Turkey ultimately gets through the myriad reforms to law, policy and social standards that are part of the current deal, the EU powers that be may well say: "sorry." Similarly, Turkey may well dot every "i" and cross every "t" required for EU accession and then say: "thanks but no thanks."
We found it interesting in our story yesterday on Ménat's skepticism that a principle driver of French reticence is fear of immigration. Fair enough. But tomorrow, France and other countries with declining populations will need not just a handful, but millions of immigrants to keep their economies afloat. At this stage of the EU "project" it is not entirely clear that the "Eurozone" of currency will survive. It is not clear that the so-called "Lisbon Treaty," effectively an EU constitution, will meet with requisite approval in a second referendum in Ireland. Today, the United Kingdom has a very "pro-EU" government. Tomorrow it may well not.
What all sides need to wake up to is that the EU is going through very dynamic times. So is Turkey. As today’s column by Nuray Mert makes clear, much is in flux. But too often, negotiations with Turkey seem driven by assumptions that the relative positions and reciprocal needs are static and unchanging.
We can still think of theoretical reasons the French may still harbor skepticism toward Turkey in a decade or more. We can certainly think of reasons that Turkey might decided to keep its sovereignty to itself at some distant point on the calendar.
But now, Turkey is not negotiating marriage. We just want to give this engagement period, with all the implicit exit options, a chance to work. France’s blocking of the technical opening of negotiating chapters (so far just 10 of 35 are under discussion) does not serve Ménat's dream of fashioning some "alternative" short of full membership.
Rather, it makes the kind of "realistic" conversation he seeks even more problematic down the road.
Let’s explore our engagement with the EU today. When we get closer to marriage, we can iron out terms of a pre-nuptial agreement. Or we can call the wedding off. But let’s wake up to just what we are negotiating.