Eleventh hour in Turkey’s EU saga

The European Union and Turkey should move quickly to break out of the downward spiral in negotiations, according to a new report from an international group that has called on both parties to reassert themselves.

The International Crisis Group’s report, "Turkey and Europe: The Decisive Year Ahead," to be released today, said Turkey’s reform program went off course in 2005, paradoxically when the EU negotiations kicked off. It said Turkey’s technical accession talks were going slowly and were at risk of halting altogether in the fall of 2009, when there will be no new negotiations chapters left to open.

The slowdown of reforms and heated domestic political friction have damaged efforts to bring Turkey’s laws, administrative practices and constitution closer to European norms, said the report, adding that although the blame lies chiefly with Ankara, the EU’s failures over Cyprus in 2004 and opposition to Turkey’s EU membership by some EU leaders have made the scene worse. Moreover, the draft National Program for Adopting the European Union Body of Law is late and falls short of EU expectations, the report said. The report said that although the EU welcomed the National Program draft, "many of its timescales did not match the EU list of short-term priorities, some of the wording was vague and the document, which highlights the achievements of 2001- 2004 reforms, was more defensive about the past than confident about the future."

The group said the fact the draft was stalled in the Turkish cabinet showed there was a broader ambivalence. "Cabinet resistance to the National Program in August 2008 was a clear indicator of the new Euro-skepticism in the Justice and Development Party, or AKP," the report said. "While the EU seeks many changes within a one- or two-year time frame, Turkey envisages longer horizons. Instead of showing determined political commitment to the EU process, some top Turkish leaders have preferred to adopt an injured tone of complaint about Brussels’ demands and criticism."

Only eight of the 33 chapters have been opened since 2005 and more than half are currently blocked. According to the report this has created a vicious circle "in which European slights are interpreted by Turkey as reasons to do nothing and Turkish inaction is interpreted as disinterest in the EU."

Negative public opinion
The group warned that the European populations’ cool and skeptical sentiment toward integrating Turkey’s large and relatively poor population could be exploited again in the 2009 German and European Parliament elections. Another danger ahead could be a dispirited AKP government continuing with the current "loose Europeanization agenda," with few reforms, as this would in effect end up being "perfectly consistent with the vision of a privileged partnership."

Moreover, the slowdown came just as Turkey’s initiatives to encourage openness and calm tensions in the region showed how much it could do to advance EU foreign policy goals, said the report. Despite the domestic upheavals of the past two years, Turkey’s reputation in the EU has improved due to the high profile and positive role it plays in its region, the report said. "Turkey, despite discussions of alternatives, needs an EU membership perspective to sustain its foreign policy role," it said.

The loss of EU-momentum could also have domestic implications as it will lead to new tensions between Turks and Kurds, a polarization in politics and the potential loss of the principal anchor of this decade’s economic miracle for Turkey, said the report. For Europe, the cost would be in the longer term; less easy access to one of the biggest and fastest-growing nearby markets, likely new tensions over Cyprus and loss of leverage that a real partnership with Turkey offers in helping to stabilize the Middle East, strengthen EU energy security and reach out to the Muslim world.

The report recommended Turkey to recommit to EU reforms at the highest executive level, to approve and begin implementation of the draft National Program, to maintain support for the current round of talks on a Cyprus settlement and avoid navy intervention in oil exploration in waters claimed by Greece or Greek Cyprus, to broaden the policy of inclusion toward the Kurds and to sponsor a national debate that would lead to a civil constitution.

Full membership promise
It also called on the EU to firmly reassert that Turkey would achieve full membership when it has fulfilled all criteria, to lift unofficial blocks on the screening and opening of new negotiating chapters, to crack down more firmly on financing from Europe of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, and to coordinate with recent Turkish foreign policy initiatives.

"EU leaders, particularly in France and Germany, should go out of their way to encourage Turkish reforms, including visits to and joint work programs with Turkey," the report said.