DTP likely to win stronghold

The pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party, or DTP, is expected to win local elections in the southeastern province of Diyarbakır but the result is not foregone. National politics have often crowded the quality of municipal services out of the debates. Most observers believe that the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, will make a strong showing in the local elections this Sunday, but not strong enough to topple the DTP’s Osman Baydemir as mayor of Diyarbakır.

"This local election is, at the moment, between the DTP and the AKP," said Hülya Çetin, the chair of the Diyarbakır Businesswomen’s Association. "It is not certain the DTP will sweep these elections. Anything is possible."

Noting that "the DTP has won the past two local elections in the region despite the fact that local services are seriously deficient," Çetin said that though the AKP may not win the Diyarbakır mayoral post, it will see gains in junior municipalities.

In the 2004 local elections, DTP candidate Baydemir ran as part of a leftist coalition led by the Social Democrat People’s Party, or SHP, and received 41.84 percent of the vote to the AKP’s 30.89 percent. In the 2007 general elections, DTP candidates, running as independents to escape the 10 percent election threshold, received 47.1 percent of the vote to the AKP’s 40.9 percent, sparking speculation that the ruling party may score an upset against the DTP on Sunday.

Çetin said a DTP victory was likely, but added, "It will not be that easy."

The president of the East and Southeast Businessmen Federation, Şeyhmus Akbaş, agrees, but with reservation. "This election is certainly between the AKP and the DTP. Yes, DTP looks ahead of AKP, however there are a lot of people in Diyarbakır who cannot yet decide which party they will vote for."Akbaş believes these undecided voters, comprising 25 percent of the local electorate according to surveys, will play an important role. "In recent days, the AKP campaign in the city has focused on municipal services and that attracts some people."

Akbaş described the start of Kurdish broadcasts on TRT6 and the regional economic stimulus package linked to the Southeastern Anatolia Project, or GAP, which involves the construction of dams and irrigation projects, as steps in the right direction. He said rights and jobs are the main concerns of people in the region and that people should not be surprised if the AKP scores a victory in the elections.

The AKP’s mistakes

The boost in the AKP’s popularity in the 2007 general elections took a dive when the government started to adopt a more nationalist stance, said the head of the Diyarbakır Chamber of Commerce, Galip Ensarioğlu. "During the general election campaign in 2007, people really supported the AKP, and if the government had continued its conciliatory policies, the party would have won this local election," he said. Ensarioğlu characterized the clashes between the AKP and the DTP and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s "love it or leave it" polemic targeting the DTP leadership as "fatal mistakes."

"People saw this stance as an attack on their values and switched their allegiance back to the DTP," Ensarioğlu said. "The two most important issues in the region are rights and jobs, but they are not alternatives to each other." Ensarioğlu also said the AKP’s choice of mayoral candidate for Diyarbakır, Kutbettin Arzu, was also a mistake. Sociologist Rüstem Erkan, an associate professor at Diyarbakır Dicle University, said the DTP’s position in the city was as strong as ever, since Arzu is largely unknown by the community.

"The DTP candidate, Osman Baydemir, is widely supported," Erkan said. "Baydemir is even more popular than the DTP in some places." Erkan said there has been a steady deterioration in the AKP’s focus on the region since the 2007 elections, saying that the ruling party’s campaign message about not enough municipal services in Diyarbakır would not find success among a highly politicized constituency dominated by young people.

"Almost 60 percent of the population in the city is under the age of 25, and right now, it seems the dynamics are for the young population to designate the destiny of this election," Erkan said. The comparatively calm atmosphere in the run-up to the local elections reflects the general mood of an electorate that does not want violence, said Ensarioğlu. "The anti-violence mood benefited the AKP to the detriment of the DTP until the AKP attacked the pro-Kurdish party," he said. "Violence by the [outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or] PKK shifted votes to the AKP. But the AKP’s attitude later shifted to votes back to the DTP," he said.



NOTE: Daily News İzmir representative Serdar Alyamaç is a Diyarbakır native.