Cuneyt Ulsever: The presidential elections and the Middle East

So let's go through some mental gymnastics today, and think about whether the elections in the US could have any effect on the elections in Turkey.

My focus is trying to understand how developments following the US mid-terms might change the Middle East, and how any new conditions in the Middle East might then affect Turkey, and then be reflected onto our elections here.

If the Democrats gain a majority in the House of Representatives in the November 7 mid-term elections, or if the Republicans are able to protect their majority in Congress by only a slight margin, the chance that the US will come up with a new Iraq plan only increases more.

In any case, whether the Democrats win big or the Republicans maintain majority with a slight margin, both of these situations demonstrate the fact that the American people no longer want this war in Iraq, which means that the US will soon have to come up with a plan for pulling out of Iraq.

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Which means, in effect, that Iraq's division into three parts becomes literal.

Now try to imagine a Middle East surrounding an Iraq divided into three parts. Here are some scenarios:

1) Iran supporting the Shiites, underhandedly, in an attempt to become dominant in the Middle East.

2) Countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt supporting the Sunni forces, if only in reaction to Iranian efforts, and to try and get a hand in developments.

3) Iran's continuing to support, again underhandedly, both Hizbollah and Hamas against Israel.Â

4) The US sending troops into Northern Iraq, to stabilize its presence in the region, as well as to keep Kirkuk oil under its own control, and to protect its closest allies in Iraq, the Kurds.

5) While the Shiites and Sunnis continue their clashes against eachother, they are also carrying out attacks against the Kurds, their common enemies, in Northern Iraq.

6) The US, thinking "whatever I'm able to save in this region will be a profit for me," stays on, while trying to find some path of agreement with Iran. In the general Middle East, a Shiite balance of power begins to replace the Sunni balance of power.Â

7) Iran, which has finished its nuclear research, and which is facing a Middle East order over which it will have a much increased influence, sees Turkey as its greatest adversary.

8) The US, which does not want a Turkish-Kurdish problem in Northern Iraq, tries to force the PKK to give up its weapons and become more politically effective, while urging Ankara to broadcast a general amnesty for PKK members within Turkey.

9) And now, if Turkey decided to enter into Northern Iraq to face off against the PKK, it would also have to face the reality that American soldiers are there too. Clearly, the already-weak option of a military action against the PKK in Northern Iraq has now been completely erased.Â

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This column, and the above scenarios, are all open to speculation of course. But the above scenarios are, whether piece by piece, or as a whole, being examined as realities right now in Washington, DC.  There are definitely people in Washington who, as allies of ours, are examining "how Turkey would react to these various options."

Still, their underlying motive is: first save ourselves, then the others!

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My personal belief is that as the above listed scenarios come to life, it will mean that the upcoming elections in Turkey will take on an international importance.  I think it would help a great deal if the politicians and bureaucrats taking part in both the presidential and general elections in this country started asking themselves now what they will do in the face of these developments.