CHP eyes local ballot comeback
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by Ä°zgi Güngör
OluÅŸturulma Tarihi: Ocak 26, 2009 00:00
ANKARA - With Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s candidacy, the Republican People’s Party is likely to increase its votes in Istanbul while Ankara Mayor Melih Gökçek is likely to lose support he traditionally commanded from the Nationalist Movement Party and right-wing parties in March elections, experts say.
After many frustrated years attempting to garner votes in local elections in big cities, Turkey’s social democrats are now optimistic. With two strong candidates, Murat Karayalçın and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, they have good reason to hope for winning mayoral seats in Ankara and Istanbul in the March elections.
The March 29 local elections have become a fierce race between the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, and the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, especially in Ankara and Istanbul. CHP plans a strong leap forward in AKP-run cities with the nomination of rising star Kemal KılıçdaroÄŸlu in Istanbul and former Ankara Mayor Murat Karayalçın in Ankara.Â
Political observers say all parties, the CHP in particular, have attached the utmost importance to the local elections, which many view as a race rehearsal for general elections. The CHP will thus run for absolute triumph in the local elections, most notably in Istanbul and Ankara.
In Istanbul, the surveys show the race will be between the CHP and AKP. The CHP preserves its traditionally superior position in the districts along the seaside such as Kadıköy, Şişli, on the islands, Beşiktaş, Silivri and in Bakırköy, while the AKP is strong in the suburban and inner parts of the city.
The CHP this time covets the traditional domains of the AKP with Kılıçdaroğlu, who has recently attracted great attention with the corruption claims he brought against the AKP.
"Kılıçdaroğlu’s star shined after the corruption claims and his debate with Ankara Mayor Melih Gökçek. He is so popular. He went over the corruption cases in a period in which corruption claims were widespread. So we also think he is not only well known but what he has done has been approved. It would not be easy to say that Kılıçdaroğlu is more or less prepared in comparison to another candidates," said İlter Turan, a scholar at the Istanbul’s Bilgi University.
Noting that Kılıçdaroğlu now planned to bring new corruption claims against current Istanbul Mayor Kadir Topbaş, Turan said, "A mayor’s campaign should be about what he would bring to the city or not. Maybe Kılıçdaroğlu would bring his old success and habits learned during his previous municipal administration, or he might be negligent in some fields such as successfully operating services. We try to look at the issue with foresight. However, I should add this. If the CHP wins in Istanbul, the AKP will be seriously damaged and the CHP will start to feel stronger," Turan said.
Surveys show the CHP may increase its votes to 37 percent with Kılıçdaroğlu. The CHP is also hopeful in Istanbul because no other former mayor has so far upheld the mayoral post twice. The first local elections held after the AKP’s landslide victory in November 2002 turned into AKP’s Istanbul victory. AKP’s candidate, Kadir Topbaş, outscored his most powerful rival, CHP’s candidate Sefa Sirmen on March 28, 2004. While the AKP’s voter rates reached 45 percent, CHP’s remained at 28 percent.
The race in Ankara will be harsher than in Istanbul as surveys show there is only a slight gap between AKP’s Gökçek and CHP’s Karayalçın.
Political observers and media analysts say the CHP, which was defeated in the last local elections because votes were fragmented across leftist parties, has now more of a chance as Karayalçın is likely to receive support from both the decaying right-wing parties and other leftists. It is also probable that Gökçek will lose a substantial portion of votes he formerly received from the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, and those on the right. "There are more than two months to local elections. It is hard to make a forecast but there are two things that make this election different from others. This election will be a kind of rehearsal for the general elections and all political parties will adopt a political stance in line with the results of these local elections," said daily Sabah journalist Muharrem Sarıkaya.
"Contrary to former local elections, leftist parties this time joined efforts in Ankara and the right-wing parties will display a fragmented landscape with strong candidates."
The March 29 local elections have become a fierce race between the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, and the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, especially in Ankara and Istanbul. CHP plans a strong leap forward in AKP-run cities with the nomination of rising star Kemal KılıçdaroÄŸlu in Istanbul and former Ankara Mayor Murat Karayalçın in Ankara.Â
Political observers say all parties, the CHP in particular, have attached the utmost importance to the local elections, which many view as a race rehearsal for general elections. The CHP will thus run for absolute triumph in the local elections, most notably in Istanbul and Ankara.
In Istanbul, the surveys show the race will be between the CHP and AKP. The CHP preserves its traditionally superior position in the districts along the seaside such as Kadıköy, Şişli, on the islands, Beşiktaş, Silivri and in Bakırköy, while the AKP is strong in the suburban and inner parts of the city.
The CHP this time covets the traditional domains of the AKP with Kılıçdaroğlu, who has recently attracted great attention with the corruption claims he brought against the AKP.
"Kılıçdaroğlu’s star shined after the corruption claims and his debate with Ankara Mayor Melih Gökçek. He is so popular. He went over the corruption cases in a period in which corruption claims were widespread. So we also think he is not only well known but what he has done has been approved. It would not be easy to say that Kılıçdaroğlu is more or less prepared in comparison to another candidates," said İlter Turan, a scholar at the Istanbul’s Bilgi University.
Noting that Kılıçdaroğlu now planned to bring new corruption claims against current Istanbul Mayor Kadir Topbaş, Turan said, "A mayor’s campaign should be about what he would bring to the city or not. Maybe Kılıçdaroğlu would bring his old success and habits learned during his previous municipal administration, or he might be negligent in some fields such as successfully operating services. We try to look at the issue with foresight. However, I should add this. If the CHP wins in Istanbul, the AKP will be seriously damaged and the CHP will start to feel stronger," Turan said.
Surveys show the CHP may increase its votes to 37 percent with Kılıçdaroğlu. The CHP is also hopeful in Istanbul because no other former mayor has so far upheld the mayoral post twice. The first local elections held after the AKP’s landslide victory in November 2002 turned into AKP’s Istanbul victory. AKP’s candidate, Kadir Topbaş, outscored his most powerful rival, CHP’s candidate Sefa Sirmen on March 28, 2004. While the AKP’s voter rates reached 45 percent, CHP’s remained at 28 percent.
The race in Ankara will be harsher than in Istanbul as surveys show there is only a slight gap between AKP’s Gökçek and CHP’s Karayalçın.
Political observers and media analysts say the CHP, which was defeated in the last local elections because votes were fragmented across leftist parties, has now more of a chance as Karayalçın is likely to receive support from both the decaying right-wing parties and other leftists. It is also probable that Gökçek will lose a substantial portion of votes he formerly received from the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, and those on the right. "There are more than two months to local elections. It is hard to make a forecast but there are two things that make this election different from others. This election will be a kind of rehearsal for the general elections and all political parties will adopt a political stance in line with the results of these local elections," said daily Sabah journalist Muharrem Sarıkaya.
"Contrary to former local elections, leftist parties this time joined efforts in Ankara and the right-wing parties will display a fragmented landscape with strong candidates."