China-Dalai Lama talks unlikely to bring success: analysts

In a move welcomed around the world, Chinese state media said Friday that government officials would meet soon with a representative of the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader.

But Tibet experts immediately dismissed it as a desperate bid to defuse mounting international pressure over China's controversial crackdown on unrest in Tibet with less than four months before the Olympics.

Protests over last months crackdown in the Himalayan region have cast a shadow over the Olympic torch relay, which China had hoped would symbolise its rising status and pride in hosting the August Games.

"Who says China has blinked? This invitation takes the wind out of the Tibetans' campaign of protests ahead of the Olympics, which was becoming a matter of huge concern for China," said Anand Ojha, a China-Indian political analyst at Delhi University.

China has mercilessly vilified the Dalai Lama, blaming him for recent deadly anti-Chinese riots in Tibet that has triggered a harsh military crackdown.

Beijing says Tibetan rioters killed 20 people while exiled Tibetan leaders say more than 150 have died in the crackdown.

China on Saturday gave no indication it was softening its position towards the Dalai Lama, with the People's Daily, the Communist Party's main mouthpiece, calling him "the chief ringleader of activities to sabotage the normal religious order of Tibet."

Beijing also has given no specifics on the talks -- details that are key to determining the sincerity of China's offer, Tibet experts note.

Observers have blamed the failure of previous talks -- the last round was in July 2007 -- on the fact that China's negotiators were powerless, low-level officials.

"The first indication of how serious China is will be if they send out someone more senior with real and substantive negotiating power," said Andrew Fischer, a Tibet expert at the London School of Economics. Otherwise, "this is unlikely to be more than just a dialogue," he said.

China's rule of Tibet was thrust back into the world spotlight by the riots, the latest sign of deep resentment over what critics say has been six decades of Chinese religious and political oppression of the devoutly Buddhist region.

While some experts dismissed China's move as a public relations stunt, others say it indicates a realisation by some in the government that its policy of pushing economic growth in Tibet has failed to win over Tibetans.

"It was not just the international pressure. This decision shows China must face its problems in Tibet, as it has not been able to quell the unrest despite a massive crackdown," said Tsering Shakya, a Tibet historian at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver. "Senior Chinese leaders realise they face a real problem in Tibet."

Yet substantive change is unlikely until Beijing removes the regions top official, Zhang Qingli, experts also said. Zhang is known for his tough stance on dissent since taking over in Tibet in 2005 and, before that, the western region of Xinjiang where China faces similar discontent among millions of Muslim ethnic Uighurs.

"What I think is that if the Communist Party is really interested in real negotiations, the first step is to sack (Zhang)," said Shakya. "The things that he has done and the threatening and violent language he uses have been very disturbing."

Fischer agreed, saying Zhang's policy approach appeared to be "wipe out Tibetan culture and assimilate it into the mainland."

"My hope is that this (offer of talks) will discredit the policies pushed heavily over the past five to ten years. The government is concerned that it has achieved growth but not stability," he said.