Changing times, changing Cabinet

As outlines of the expected post-election Cabinet reshuffle materialize, the government is chasing progress on a range of diplomatic, financial and cultural measures.

Attempts to reconcile Turkey’s differences with neighboring Armenia while preserving ties with Azerbaijan is just one of the many-faceted efforts of the government, which is eyeing a deal with the International Monetary Fund and locally, a key constitutional change package. The government is also looking to address the concerns of Turkey’s Alevi community, a progressive Islamic sect.

But in order to proceed in all these areas, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is in search of a new team that can handle the responsibilities with him. It is doubtlessly seen that Erdoğan’s first action will be reshuffling his Cabinet by introducing some new figures as his new right hands. He would rather choose some strong personalities who could share the burden on his shoulder, especially in foreign policy.

That’s why no one in the capital was surprised when Professor Ahmet Davutoğlu, the government’s chief foreign policy adviser, was mentioned as the strongest candidate for the Foreign Ministry, as the current Ali Babacan would be moved to the economic ministry.

Davutoğlu has been at the center of foreign policy since the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, came to power in 2002. An academic and author of the famous book, "Strategic Depth," Davutoğlu has always preferred to remain a power behind the throne, appearing as a "shadow minister."

Davutoğlu’s appointment would certainly free Erdoğan’s hands, as he will be confident that "foreign policy is in the right hands." Turkey’s reconciliatory talks with Armenia, efforts to soothe Azerbaijan and other top diplomatic problems will require an expertise and wisdom to avert potential crisis. It’s one of the main reasons to justify Davutoğlu’s possible appointment.

But it is not just other tough foreign policy issues like Cyprus, Middle East or the European Union; the ongoing global economic crisis and the country’s failure in responding to it constitute another justification for the Cabinet reshuffling. Compared to Mehmet Şimşek, the current state minister responsible for economy, Babacan was seen as a very successful economy minister when he served from 2002 to 2007. Thus Erdoğan is considering replacing Şimşek with Babacan on the eve of a new standby agreement with the IMF, probably next month.

Another task this government will try to accomplish is to amend the Constitution in its broadest sense. Rewriting the Constitution has always been on the government’s radar, but its efforts have been futile because of some strategic mistakes in acquiring support from opposition parties. Thus, the government will now seek the consensus of these parties but doing so will also require fresh names in the Cabinet.

Amendments and EU

Replacing Justice Minister Mehmet Ali Şahin with a new figure would work toward the government’s advantage. Şahin’s reputation among the opposition parties does not give him much space for political maneuvering.

Amending the Constitution will also work in advantage of the government vis-?-vis the European Union, which criticizes the government for the slow pace of the reform process. Assuming that there will be no easy breakthrough in Cyprus for the comprehensive settlement, the government will experience another storm with the EU in late 2009. There is no doubt there will be a reaction against Turkey later this year if it continues to fail to open its ports and airports to Greek Cyprus, a promise that the government has failed to keep since 2006.

Only a surprise amendment to the Constitution can help Turkey minimize the negative effects of disregarding the EU’s rules.

Although it is much expected, reshuffling the Cabinet would also take some time, days if not weeks, according to sources. It has been experienced several times that Erdoğan postpones such tough decisions, which are reported in the media in order not to give the impression that he was doing it under pressure. But as a result of comprehensive study of the party, the replacement of many ministers is highly possible because half of the Cabinet has served since 2002, enough evidence to show the mental fatigue among some ministers.

The 13 ministers who have not been replaced since 2002 are Deputy Prime Minister Cemil Çiçek; state ministers Murat Başesgioğlu, Mehmet Aydın and Kürşad Tüzmen; Justice Minister Mehmet Ali Şahin; Defense Minister Vecdi Gönül; Interior Minister Beşir Atalay; Foreign Minister Ali Babacan; Finance Minister Kemal Unakıtan; Health Minister Recep Akdağ; Transportation Minister Binali Yıldırım; Energy Minister Hilmi Güler; and Education Minister Hüseyin Çelik.

Of these names Tüzmen, Çelik, Güler and Atalay are most likely to lose their seats.

Akdağ, who has been serving as health minister for seven years, may be reappointed to the Labor and Social Security Ministry on the grounds that the "reform on social security and general health insurance" has transferred all the work of the Health Ministry to the Labor Ministry.

In addition to a possible reshuffle, new ministries are also in the making.

One expected scenario is that the Culture and Tourism Ministry will be converted into two separate ministries: the Culture Ministry and the Tourism Ministry.

The separation will pave the way for the AKP’s Alevi deputy Reha Camuroglu to be appointed as culture minister, while current Culture and Tourism Minister Ertugrul Gunay is expected to maintain his post only as tourism minister.

Another candidate for Culture Ministry is Menderes Türel, former Antalya mayor, who lost the mayoral race in the March 29 local elections.

The Environment and Forest Ministry also might split. In such a case, Veysel Eroğlu would remain in office as environment minister while parliamentary group deputy leader Nihat Ergun would be appointed forest minister.