Bracing for grim outlook on jobless
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by Şebnem Turhan/Bahardir Özgür - Referans
Oluşturulma Tarihi: Ocak 26, 2009 00:00
ISTANBUL - Unemployment, which has been a chronic problem since the 2001 economic crisis, has been getting worse, according to a report by the Turkish Statistical Institute, or TÜİK, revealing October 2008 data.
Although things got worse during October, the real damage caused by the crisis will be revealed more by TÜİK’s figures from November and December. The following critical indicators may be forerunners to a major cyclical "employment earthquake" that is yet to hit the country.
The data revealing the increase in applications filed with the Turkish Employment Organization, or İşkur, has critical importance due to the fact it clearly displays the decline in registered workers as well as the cyclical drop in employment caused by the crisis. There was a serious boom in the number of applicants to İşkur in November. The problem became even more serious in December.
The number of applications filed with İşkur in November rose 146.9 percent year-on-year. In a similar move the December data shows that the number of applicants to declare their unemployment increased 472.7 percent year-on-year. The number of people who are registered with the İşkur as eligible for work has increased 29.7 percent year-on-year in November, and 42 percent year-on-year in December. On the other hand the number of registered unemployed rose 27.2 percent year-on-year in November and 39.5 percent year-on-year in December. These rising numbers are signaling a very serious boom that will be revealed once TÜİK’s November and December data are made public.
Declining demand for labor
Another indicator that which would accelerate the speed of the meltdown in employment is the employers’ declining demand for labor. The amount of labor demand İşkur saw from the private sector declined 11.6 percent in November compared to the same period a year earlier. The year-on-year demand decline in December was 9.7 percent. All these figures paint a picture of a rapidly rising trend in the number of people who lost their jobs due to the crisis.
The number of applicants with İşkur rose 26.2 in December compared to November. The number of those who found employment via İşkur increased at 22.5 percent during the same period. Meanwhile, the number of people able to find employment in the private sector declined 23.6 percent in December compared to November.
The real sector and consumers also have a pessimistic outlook related to employment. Some 1,200 companies operating in the manufacturing industry that participated in the Economic Tendencies Survey conducted by the Turkey’s Central Bank said they expect employment to decline drastically over the next three months.
The pessimism related to the state of employment, which started back in May 2008, gained even more strength during the October-December period.
Those who expected a decline in employment increased from 31 percent in October to 52 percent in December, according to the Central Bank survey. The consumer confidence index has also been displaying a decline. The index, which was standing at 71.5 in October, declined to 63.4 in December.
The increase in the number of people collecting unemployment compensation has been quite visible for the past couple of months. There has been a 61.2 percent increase in the number of applications for unemployment compensation in November compared to October. That figure increased another 19 percent in December. The year on year increase in applications for unemployment compensation increased 184 percent in December.
Since the 2001 economic crisis, Turkey has suffered through a rate of unemployment hovering around 9 or 10 percent. The length of the period an unemployed seeks a new job opportunity is also an indicator that the crisis has taken a cyclical turn. The rate of people who have been seeking a new job for the past five months or less was 58 percent of the total number of unemployed in October. That figure used to stand at 55 percent a year earlier, which shows the country’s unemployment problem is a cyclical situation generated quite recently.
Hike in unemployment
"The increase in unemployment from an earlier 10.3 percent to 10.9 percent as of October is quite understandable when the financial crisis’ impact on the real sector is taken into consideration," said Professor Toker, head of the Işık University’s Department of Management. If the current trends continue, then the number of people applying for unemployment compensation will also rise, said Toker, adding that would also call for an easing of the rules for unemployment compensation. If the real sector and consumers add a psychological dimension to their current trends, that would cause a further increase in unemployment figures, said Toker.
When people fail to find full-time work, they tend to orient toward temporary jobs and that is also natural, he said, adding that if the temporary opportunity did not exist, then the unemployment rate would further increase.
There are also several things employers can do to lower unemployment in times of crisis, Toker said. They could easily allow employees to work "shorter hours" or provide paid leave, he said, adding that offering unpaid vacations or implementing methods such as work sharing are also some of the options that can be considered.
The data revealing the increase in applications filed with the Turkish Employment Organization, or İşkur, has critical importance due to the fact it clearly displays the decline in registered workers as well as the cyclical drop in employment caused by the crisis. There was a serious boom in the number of applicants to İşkur in November. The problem became even more serious in December.
The number of applications filed with İşkur in November rose 146.9 percent year-on-year. In a similar move the December data shows that the number of applicants to declare their unemployment increased 472.7 percent year-on-year. The number of people who are registered with the İşkur as eligible for work has increased 29.7 percent year-on-year in November, and 42 percent year-on-year in December. On the other hand the number of registered unemployed rose 27.2 percent year-on-year in November and 39.5 percent year-on-year in December. These rising numbers are signaling a very serious boom that will be revealed once TÜİK’s November and December data are made public.
Declining demand for labor
Another indicator that which would accelerate the speed of the meltdown in employment is the employers’ declining demand for labor. The amount of labor demand İşkur saw from the private sector declined 11.6 percent in November compared to the same period a year earlier. The year-on-year demand decline in December was 9.7 percent. All these figures paint a picture of a rapidly rising trend in the number of people who lost their jobs due to the crisis.
The number of applicants with İşkur rose 26.2 in December compared to November. The number of those who found employment via İşkur increased at 22.5 percent during the same period. Meanwhile, the number of people able to find employment in the private sector declined 23.6 percent in December compared to November.
The real sector and consumers also have a pessimistic outlook related to employment. Some 1,200 companies operating in the manufacturing industry that participated in the Economic Tendencies Survey conducted by the Turkey’s Central Bank said they expect employment to decline drastically over the next three months.
The pessimism related to the state of employment, which started back in May 2008, gained even more strength during the October-December period.
Those who expected a decline in employment increased from 31 percent in October to 52 percent in December, according to the Central Bank survey. The consumer confidence index has also been displaying a decline. The index, which was standing at 71.5 in October, declined to 63.4 in December.
The increase in the number of people collecting unemployment compensation has been quite visible for the past couple of months. There has been a 61.2 percent increase in the number of applications for unemployment compensation in November compared to October. That figure increased another 19 percent in December. The year on year increase in applications for unemployment compensation increased 184 percent in December.
Since the 2001 economic crisis, Turkey has suffered through a rate of unemployment hovering around 9 or 10 percent. The length of the period an unemployed seeks a new job opportunity is also an indicator that the crisis has taken a cyclical turn. The rate of people who have been seeking a new job for the past five months or less was 58 percent of the total number of unemployed in October. That figure used to stand at 55 percent a year earlier, which shows the country’s unemployment problem is a cyclical situation generated quite recently.
Hike in unemployment
"The increase in unemployment from an earlier 10.3 percent to 10.9 percent as of October is quite understandable when the financial crisis’ impact on the real sector is taken into consideration," said Professor Toker, head of the Işık University’s Department of Management. If the current trends continue, then the number of people applying for unemployment compensation will also rise, said Toker, adding that would also call for an easing of the rules for unemployment compensation. If the real sector and consumers add a psychological dimension to their current trends, that would cause a further increase in unemployment figures, said Toker.
When people fail to find full-time work, they tend to orient toward temporary jobs and that is also natural, he said, adding that if the temporary opportunity did not exist, then the unemployment rate would further increase.
There are also several things employers can do to lower unemployment in times of crisis, Toker said. They could easily allow employees to work "shorter hours" or provide paid leave, he said, adding that offering unpaid vacations or implementing methods such as work sharing are also some of the options that can be considered.