Bottom seen, but road up still bumpy
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Oluşturulma Tarihi: Haziran 17, 2009 00:00
ISTANBUL - Indicators show that Turkey has hit bottom in the global crisis, a survey reveals. Industrial production from March to April is up by 1 percent, while capacity utilization climbs by 2.6 percent. But the pace of the rise remains unpredictable.
Turkish industry has hit bottom in terms of the impacts of the global crisis, but it is uncertain how fast the recovery will be, according to a new report by researchers at Bahçeşehir University.
Turkey’s industrial production dropped by 18.5 percent on the annual basis, Bahçeşehir University Center for Economic and Social Research, or BETAM, Director Prof. Seyfettin Gürsel and research assistant Onur Altındağ said in a research note, citing the industrial production index of the Turkish Statistical Institute, or TurkStat. However, other data signal a halt to the contraction in the Turkish economy.
The deseasonalized and working-day-based series have revealed that the industrial production index was up by 1 percent from March to April for the first time after 11 months. Capacity utilization climbed 2.4 percent from March to April and 2.6 percent from April to May.
In order to see an annual increase in industrial output, domestic demand seems to be not enough, the research concluded. Export rates should return to pre-crisis levels, which depends on the global economy overcoming the recession.
The BETAM research uses the intensity and sources of the contraction in the industry’s sub-sectors to provide detailed information on the process of beating the crisis.
In the year-on-year 18.5 percent decline in industrial production in April, 2.1 percentage points stemmed from textile clothing, 2.2 percentage points from main metal industry, 2.7 percentage points from machines and equipment, 6.3 percentage points from automotive industry and the rest from other industries.
Since the beginning of the crisis, sub-sectors’ contributions to the decline in industrial production have changed over time. Particularly with the intense contraction seen in the automotive sector since Nov. 2008, the decrease of industrial production index has accelerated, producing a stable impact over time.
Considering the contribution of sub-sectors in industry contraction, some sectors seem to have a critical role. Automotive exports play a key role as in the first eight months of 2008, exports constituted 80 percent of all automotive production in Turkey.
Turkey’s industrial production dropped by 18.5 percent on the annual basis, Bahçeşehir University Center for Economic and Social Research, or BETAM, Director Prof. Seyfettin Gürsel and research assistant Onur Altındağ said in a research note, citing the industrial production index of the Turkish Statistical Institute, or TurkStat. However, other data signal a halt to the contraction in the Turkish economy.
The deseasonalized and working-day-based series have revealed that the industrial production index was up by 1 percent from March to April for the first time after 11 months. Capacity utilization climbed 2.4 percent from March to April and 2.6 percent from April to May.
In order to see an annual increase in industrial output, domestic demand seems to be not enough, the research concluded. Export rates should return to pre-crisis levels, which depends on the global economy overcoming the recession.
The BETAM research uses the intensity and sources of the contraction in the industry’s sub-sectors to provide detailed information on the process of beating the crisis.
In the year-on-year 18.5 percent decline in industrial production in April, 2.1 percentage points stemmed from textile clothing, 2.2 percentage points from main metal industry, 2.7 percentage points from machines and equipment, 6.3 percentage points from automotive industry and the rest from other industries.
Since the beginning of the crisis, sub-sectors’ contributions to the decline in industrial production have changed over time. Particularly with the intense contraction seen in the automotive sector since Nov. 2008, the decrease of industrial production index has accelerated, producing a stable impact over time.
Considering the contribution of sub-sectors in industry contraction, some sectors seem to have a critical role. Automotive exports play a key role as in the first eight months of 2008, exports constituted 80 percent of all automotive production in Turkey.