Ballot box success lies in the eye of the beholder
Güncelleme Tarihi:
by Sevim Songün-Åžafak Timur
OluÅŸturulma Tarihi: Mart 13, 2009 00:00
ISTANBUL - Victory is easy to define, but success is a more difficult question. The debate among experts and politicians about how to measure the success or failure of the AKP in the March 29 elections is as fierce as the campaigns themselves
How to measure the success of a party that has increased support in three consecutive elections has divided pundits as well as politicians.Â
In its first run as a party in the 2002 general elections, the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, received 34.43 percent of the vote. In the 2004 local elections, its support level increased to 42.18 percent. And just when people were thinking the AKP, after five years in power, would suffer the likely decline in support that comes to most governments, it further increased its votes to 46.58 percent in the 2007 general elections.
"If the AKP gets less than 46 percent of the vote in local elections (March 29), it should be interpreted as a warning to the party from the people. If it gets over that threshold, then it can be regarded as a big success," Taha Akyol, a columnist for daily Milliyet, said.
However, according to Hasan KirmanoÄŸlu, the head of the economics department at Bilgi Unviersity, the increase or decrease in votes will not determine success for the political parties. "Success is being the first party, regardless of its percentage of votes," he said.
Metin Heper, the dean of Ankara Bilkent University's Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty, also agreed that percentages of votes was not a criteria for success in local elections. "The percentage of votes in general elections and in local elections should not be compared," he said.
"It is successful if it gets more votes than the other parties," Heper said.
But Oral Çalışlar, a columnist at daily Radikal believes the ratio of AKP’s votes is the key point. "The percentage of its votes will show its success," he said. Çalışlar believes that the AKP will exceed the margin of victory it had in the 2007 general elections. He said this would be due to the failure of the opposition, however, rather than the success of the ruling party. "If support for a ruling party has not eroded in seven years, it can only be due to the failure of the opposition," Çalışlar said. "Neither the Republican People’s Party (CHP) nor the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) can be considered as a viable alternative. They are even against the Kurdish broadcasting on television."
Forty percent is a psychological threshold, according to former politician and economist Mehmet Ali Bayar. "The AKP got 42 percent in the last local elections. If its votes decrease below 40, it would mean that the people are starting to hold the AKP responsible for the problems they have," he said.
The economic crisis should be the main agenda for the elections, according to Bayar, but Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan is skilled at shifting the attention of the electorate elsewhere.
Bayar said certain cities, like Istanbul or Ankara, also have significance beyond just votes, adding that losing these cities to another party could be perceived as losing the election.
"If the AKP loses Ankara or Istanbul, the psychological factor will be critical, even if it preserves its vote percentage. It would mean that the AKP lost its image as a center party," Bayar said.
Bülent Tanla, a former politician who currently deals with field research, said it was not the percentage of votes but the number of votes that could be a meaningful measure of success, as the number of voters has changed since the last elections. According to Tanla, having more or less the same as in the last general election will be a serious criterion for their success. Politicians are also divided on the issue.
Defeat would cause restructure
AKP deputy leader Nihat Ergün, speaking to ANKA news agency yesterday, said the ruling party considered defeat as taking less than 37 percent of national support or coming second to another party. Such a defeat would force them to restructure their party organization and policies, said Ergün, dismissing claims by CHP leader, Deniz Baykal, that anything less than 52 percent would be a defeat. "If getting 45 percent of the vote in five successive elections is a defeat, we as a party are willing to be defeated," Ergün said. "Along the same lines, if getting 20 percent in five successive elections is a success, I wish Baykal all the success."
The effect of the economic crisis has to be taken into account this time with the global economic meltdown starting to hit Turkey. However experts do not expect a sharp decrease in AKP votes due to the crisis. Voters prefer the AKP despite the economic hit mainly because of the lack of alternative, according to economist Kirmanoğlu. It was like the period of former president and politician, Turgut Özal, Kirmanoğlu said, as there was no strong alternative to Özal until 1991. "The AKP’s image is seriously damaged because more and more people, even business circles that support the AKP, are of the view that the government has not managed the economic crisis well," said Akyol. "However, the AKP will not lose much of its support because the people do not see any alternative."
Akyol said the CHP had failed. "The CHP is not a social democratic party. It is a party of Kemalist origin. Social democratic parties are not interested in the beliefs and lifestyles of people but economic and social status. However, the CHP evaluate people according to their lifestyles, that is the reason why it fails to secure votes from poor people."
According to Mehmet Altan, a columnist for daily Star, the sharp division of opinions in society will overshadow any possible negative effect the crisis has on the AKP’s votes.
Åžahin Alpay said in his column for daily Zaman on March 3, that the increased support for the AKP between 2004 and 2007 was due to the 7 percent annual economic growth.
"The unemployment rate has risen to 13 percent in urban areas, the number of unemployed has reached 3 million. Despite all survey predictions, the party will get the public approval of its policies and will have no excuse to avoid following through on the reforms it has promised," said Alpay.
Usually local elections are not compared with general election results as both have different dynamics. The atmosphere of election campaign rallies reveals that this time it will be different. Unlike the former local elections, the character or the charisma of the mayoral candidates might not be as important as their party’s standing, experts said.
Bekir Ağırdır, a manager at the prominent research company Konda, said in neighborhoods where the population is over 50,000, friendship or kinship relations lose their power and identity is defined by political, ethnic and cultural attributions.
In its first run as a party in the 2002 general elections, the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, received 34.43 percent of the vote. In the 2004 local elections, its support level increased to 42.18 percent. And just when people were thinking the AKP, after five years in power, would suffer the likely decline in support that comes to most governments, it further increased its votes to 46.58 percent in the 2007 general elections.
"If the AKP gets less than 46 percent of the vote in local elections (March 29), it should be interpreted as a warning to the party from the people. If it gets over that threshold, then it can be regarded as a big success," Taha Akyol, a columnist for daily Milliyet, said.
However, according to Hasan KirmanoÄŸlu, the head of the economics department at Bilgi Unviersity, the increase or decrease in votes will not determine success for the political parties. "Success is being the first party, regardless of its percentage of votes," he said.
Metin Heper, the dean of Ankara Bilkent University's Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty, also agreed that percentages of votes was not a criteria for success in local elections. "The percentage of votes in general elections and in local elections should not be compared," he said.
"It is successful if it gets more votes than the other parties," Heper said.
But Oral Çalışlar, a columnist at daily Radikal believes the ratio of AKP’s votes is the key point. "The percentage of its votes will show its success," he said. Çalışlar believes that the AKP will exceed the margin of victory it had in the 2007 general elections. He said this would be due to the failure of the opposition, however, rather than the success of the ruling party. "If support for a ruling party has not eroded in seven years, it can only be due to the failure of the opposition," Çalışlar said. "Neither the Republican People’s Party (CHP) nor the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) can be considered as a viable alternative. They are even against the Kurdish broadcasting on television."
Forty percent is a psychological threshold, according to former politician and economist Mehmet Ali Bayar. "The AKP got 42 percent in the last local elections. If its votes decrease below 40, it would mean that the people are starting to hold the AKP responsible for the problems they have," he said.
The economic crisis should be the main agenda for the elections, according to Bayar, but Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan is skilled at shifting the attention of the electorate elsewhere.
Bayar said certain cities, like Istanbul or Ankara, also have significance beyond just votes, adding that losing these cities to another party could be perceived as losing the election.
"If the AKP loses Ankara or Istanbul, the psychological factor will be critical, even if it preserves its vote percentage. It would mean that the AKP lost its image as a center party," Bayar said.
Bülent Tanla, a former politician who currently deals with field research, said it was not the percentage of votes but the number of votes that could be a meaningful measure of success, as the number of voters has changed since the last elections. According to Tanla, having more or less the same as in the last general election will be a serious criterion for their success. Politicians are also divided on the issue.
Defeat would cause restructure
AKP deputy leader Nihat Ergün, speaking to ANKA news agency yesterday, said the ruling party considered defeat as taking less than 37 percent of national support or coming second to another party. Such a defeat would force them to restructure their party organization and policies, said Ergün, dismissing claims by CHP leader, Deniz Baykal, that anything less than 52 percent would be a defeat. "If getting 45 percent of the vote in five successive elections is a defeat, we as a party are willing to be defeated," Ergün said. "Along the same lines, if getting 20 percent in five successive elections is a success, I wish Baykal all the success."
The effect of the economic crisis has to be taken into account this time with the global economic meltdown starting to hit Turkey. However experts do not expect a sharp decrease in AKP votes due to the crisis. Voters prefer the AKP despite the economic hit mainly because of the lack of alternative, according to economist Kirmanoğlu. It was like the period of former president and politician, Turgut Özal, Kirmanoğlu said, as there was no strong alternative to Özal until 1991. "The AKP’s image is seriously damaged because more and more people, even business circles that support the AKP, are of the view that the government has not managed the economic crisis well," said Akyol. "However, the AKP will not lose much of its support because the people do not see any alternative."
Akyol said the CHP had failed. "The CHP is not a social democratic party. It is a party of Kemalist origin. Social democratic parties are not interested in the beliefs and lifestyles of people but economic and social status. However, the CHP evaluate people according to their lifestyles, that is the reason why it fails to secure votes from poor people."
According to Mehmet Altan, a columnist for daily Star, the sharp division of opinions in society will overshadow any possible negative effect the crisis has on the AKP’s votes.
Åžahin Alpay said in his column for daily Zaman on March 3, that the increased support for the AKP between 2004 and 2007 was due to the 7 percent annual economic growth.
"The unemployment rate has risen to 13 percent in urban areas, the number of unemployed has reached 3 million. Despite all survey predictions, the party will get the public approval of its policies and will have no excuse to avoid following through on the reforms it has promised," said Alpay.
Usually local elections are not compared with general election results as both have different dynamics. The atmosphere of election campaign rallies reveals that this time it will be different. Unlike the former local elections, the character or the charisma of the mayoral candidates might not be as important as their party’s standing, experts said.
Bekir Ağırdır, a manager at the prominent research company Konda, said in neighborhoods where the population is over 50,000, friendship or kinship relations lose their power and identity is defined by political, ethnic and cultural attributions.