Ata Invest hopeful for 2nd half
Güncelleme Tarihi:
Hürriyet Daily News
Oluşturulma Tarihi: Şubat 21, 2009 00:00
ISTANBUL - The global financial crisis will continue to effect Turkish financial markets in the first half of the year, said the chief economist of one of Turkey's leading financial services company.
Speaking at a press conference Friday, Nurhan Toğuç, chief economist of Ata Invest, said the economy would likely start growing again in the second half of the year.
Depending on the duration and intensity of the global turmoil, Turkey would stand stronger compared to other developing economies when the crisis is over, Toğuç said in Istanbul.
"The first half of seems to be difficult due to the contraction in the market, however, through the positive effects of the Central Bank's interest rate cuts and the decline in the value of the Turkish Lira, the economy would display a much better performance in the second half," she said. "In case the decline in value of the lira reduces import volumes and growth in unemployment is prevented, a positive growth figure could be possible for the end of the year."
Based on a $50 price per barrel for crude oil, the inflation rate would stand at 6 percent by the end of the year, Toğuç predicted. "We also foresee the Central Bank to keep cutting interest rates," she said, adding: "The dollar may stand at around 1.60 liras by year-end."
"Again, depending on a price of $50 per barrel for oil, Turkey's current account deficit, which was $42 billion last year, would drop to $26.5 billion, which is 3.8 percent of gross domestic product," she added.
The primary goal of a likely deal with the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, should be reducing public spending as well as providing liquidity for financial markets, said Toğuç. "The external financing deficit seems to be in a range between $10 and 30 billion this year and a possible source coming from the IMF would cover this."
Depending on the duration and intensity of the global turmoil, Turkey would stand stronger compared to other developing economies when the crisis is over, Toğuç said in Istanbul.
"The first half of seems to be difficult due to the contraction in the market, however, through the positive effects of the Central Bank's interest rate cuts and the decline in the value of the Turkish Lira, the economy would display a much better performance in the second half," she said. "In case the decline in value of the lira reduces import volumes and growth in unemployment is prevented, a positive growth figure could be possible for the end of the year."
Based on a $50 price per barrel for crude oil, the inflation rate would stand at 6 percent by the end of the year, Toğuç predicted. "We also foresee the Central Bank to keep cutting interest rates," she said, adding: "The dollar may stand at around 1.60 liras by year-end."
"Again, depending on a price of $50 per barrel for oil, Turkey's current account deficit, which was $42 billion last year, would drop to $26.5 billion, which is 3.8 percent of gross domestic product," she added.
The primary goal of a likely deal with the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, should be reducing public spending as well as providing liquidity for financial markets, said Toğuç. "The external financing deficit seems to be in a range between $10 and 30 billion this year and a possible source coming from the IMF would cover this."