A loudly ticking clock on Iran’s nuclear plans
Güncelleme Tarihi:
Oluşturulma Tarihi: Şubat 27, 2009 00:00
In diplomacy, as in life, difficult decisions often need to be made when one would prefer to wait. One of these moments is quickly bearing down on U.S. President Barack Obama.
Last week, it was widely reported that Iran has enough enriched uranium to build its first nuclear bomb. This week, as we reported, Iran threw the switch for pilot operations for its first nuclear power plant. It runs on enriched uranium. This means more material for more bombs.
Meanwhile, the Likud chief in Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, appears about ready to form a new government. No Israeli leader has been as adamant as Netanyahu that Iran’s nuclear ambitions must be thwarted. If the risk of a preemptive strike by Israel was high before the recent elections in Israel, we can only conclude the risk is soon to grow even higher.
No one but Obama knows just how he is likely to react. He has certainly indicated a willingness to turn a fresh page with Iran and suggested a dialogue might begin in the context of April’s G-20 summit. His nuclear proliferation chief, Gary Samore, has at least signaled a reticence to stage a dangerous attack on Iran, or sanction one by Israel. Samore has said a nuclear-armed Iran may be "unstoppable."
There is a great deal of international traffic flowing through our region these days. Regional envoy George Mitchell is in the capital as we put together this newspaper. We assume this is among the topics under discussion.
We are not comfortable with the prospect of an Iranian bomb. We certainly wish Israel, Pakistan and North Korea had never acquired these weapons. But we are even less comfortable with the wreckage that would be the fruit of yet another military showdown or conflict in the neighborhood. We would tend to agree with Samore. And we would note that even in Israel, Netanyahu’s aggressive posture is probably not shared by a majority of Israelis. But we are not under any illusion that "managing" in a world with an Iranian nuclear capacity will be easy. All the regional power relationships, from Hizbullah in Lebanon to Hamas in Palestine, to the statelets in the Gulf, will have to be recalibrated.
So it was heartening to learn yesterday that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been in touch with Iran and is moving to play the role of interlocutor between Tehran and Washington. Reasonable people might wonder whether the best way to communicate with Obama is through a British journalist aboard the prime minister’s airplane. But Erdoğan deserves the benefit of doubt.
Erdoğan’s past efforts to be helpful, in the Caucasuses, in the Israeli-Syrian relationship and famously in Gaza, have resulted in little concrete. But we remain hopeful. It could not be more welcome if Erdoğan can get the United States and Iran to turn a new page in their relationship. Time is running out.
Meanwhile, the Likud chief in Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, appears about ready to form a new government. No Israeli leader has been as adamant as Netanyahu that Iran’s nuclear ambitions must be thwarted. If the risk of a preemptive strike by Israel was high before the recent elections in Israel, we can only conclude the risk is soon to grow even higher.
No one but Obama knows just how he is likely to react. He has certainly indicated a willingness to turn a fresh page with Iran and suggested a dialogue might begin in the context of April’s G-20 summit. His nuclear proliferation chief, Gary Samore, has at least signaled a reticence to stage a dangerous attack on Iran, or sanction one by Israel. Samore has said a nuclear-armed Iran may be "unstoppable."
There is a great deal of international traffic flowing through our region these days. Regional envoy George Mitchell is in the capital as we put together this newspaper. We assume this is among the topics under discussion.
We are not comfortable with the prospect of an Iranian bomb. We certainly wish Israel, Pakistan and North Korea had never acquired these weapons. But we are even less comfortable with the wreckage that would be the fruit of yet another military showdown or conflict in the neighborhood. We would tend to agree with Samore. And we would note that even in Israel, Netanyahu’s aggressive posture is probably not shared by a majority of Israelis. But we are not under any illusion that "managing" in a world with an Iranian nuclear capacity will be easy. All the regional power relationships, from Hizbullah in Lebanon to Hamas in Palestine, to the statelets in the Gulf, will have to be recalibrated.
So it was heartening to learn yesterday that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been in touch with Iran and is moving to play the role of interlocutor between Tehran and Washington. Reasonable people might wonder whether the best way to communicate with Obama is through a British journalist aboard the prime minister’s airplane. But Erdoğan deserves the benefit of doubt.
Erdoğan’s past efforts to be helpful, in the Caucasuses, in the Israeli-Syrian relationship and famously in Gaza, have resulted in little concrete. But we remain hopeful. It could not be more welcome if Erdoğan can get the United States and Iran to turn a new page in their relationship. Time is running out.