3 kids per family won’t save aging Turkey
Güncelleme Tarihi:
by Sevim Songün
Oluşturulma Tarihi: Kasım 15, 2008 00:00
ISTANBUL - Experts disagree with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s statements that each family in Turkey should at least have three children to overcome the adverse effect of the gradual decrease that will occur in the country's growth rate over the next 30 years.
"Encouraging people to have three children is a not the right solution to deal with the aging [population] problem," said Cem Başlevent, an academic from Istanbul Bilgi University’s Economics Department.
Academics agree that recently released data proves Turkey will face problems supporting the old and retired population. "An aging population will of course be a burden for the social security system in Turkey," said Başlevent.
Turkey’s population will not reach 100 million as it was supposed to be, not even 40 years later, says the report. The growth rate will be close to zero and Turkey will be populated by around 89 million people in 2046. That means first the number of young people will be equal to, and then lower than, the number of old people.
"The employed people cannot support the older people; this is why the social security [system] is in crisis in Europe. That will probably be Turkey’s problem too," said Professor Aysıt Tansel, from the Economics Department of Middle Eastern Technical University, or METU.
However the economy has more components that have to be taken into account, believe the experts. "To encourage a higher birth rate just to support the retired people will bring more burden to the economy, as well as society," said Başlevent, adding that the social security system already has many problems.
Education and unemployment problems
Professor Tansel shared the same view adding: "Those younger than 18 years old cannot work and they are also a burden for the economy, just like the older people."
Experts see both sides of the coin on the aging population issue. As Turkey needs young people to provide a labor force, it also needs sufficient resources and investment to educate the young.
"As the number of children a family has increases, then the possibility for each child to have a better education and care, not to mention better standards of living, decreases," said Mine Kara, a lecturer from Bilkent University Economics Faculty. Even the time parents spend with their children decreases when they have more children.
"If you plan to have a bigger labor force and encourage having more children for that reason, then you should have enough infrastructure and investments that meet the requirements of a young population," said Tansel.
Low employment rate
At that point, the education and technical education provided in the family and schools carries great importance. However, Tansel believes Turkey has not carried out sufficient improvement in these areas.
The lack of appropriate education is not the only problem. The employment rate is very low in Turkey. Experts argue that the employment rate will not increase unless certain policies targeting this problem are implemented.
"Even the last six years that Turkey had a higher growing rate in the economy, the employment rate was low," said Başlevent, adding that this was not due to the recent economic crisis. "We cannot foresee the future of the service sector; as technology is rapidly developing, some sectors need less people to operate," said Başlevent, claiming that the technological development across the world may bring lower and lower employment rates.
Experts agreed that Turkey would face the problem of supporting an aging population in the next 30 years. They also agreed, however, that encouraging people to have more children cannot compensate for this. They suggested other solutions instead, such as giving impetus to the policies to create more employment and providing a higher quality of education all around Turkey.
Academics agree that recently released data proves Turkey will face problems supporting the old and retired population. "An aging population will of course be a burden for the social security system in Turkey," said Başlevent.
Turkey’s population will not reach 100 million as it was supposed to be, not even 40 years later, says the report. The growth rate will be close to zero and Turkey will be populated by around 89 million people in 2046. That means first the number of young people will be equal to, and then lower than, the number of old people.
"The employed people cannot support the older people; this is why the social security [system] is in crisis in Europe. That will probably be Turkey’s problem too," said Professor Aysıt Tansel, from the Economics Department of Middle Eastern Technical University, or METU.
However the economy has more components that have to be taken into account, believe the experts. "To encourage a higher birth rate just to support the retired people will bring more burden to the economy, as well as society," said Başlevent, adding that the social security system already has many problems.
Education and unemployment problems
Professor Tansel shared the same view adding: "Those younger than 18 years old cannot work and they are also a burden for the economy, just like the older people."
Experts see both sides of the coin on the aging population issue. As Turkey needs young people to provide a labor force, it also needs sufficient resources and investment to educate the young.
"As the number of children a family has increases, then the possibility for each child to have a better education and care, not to mention better standards of living, decreases," said Mine Kara, a lecturer from Bilkent University Economics Faculty. Even the time parents spend with their children decreases when they have more children.
"If you plan to have a bigger labor force and encourage having more children for that reason, then you should have enough infrastructure and investments that meet the requirements of a young population," said Tansel.
Low employment rate
At that point, the education and technical education provided in the family and schools carries great importance. However, Tansel believes Turkey has not carried out sufficient improvement in these areas.
The lack of appropriate education is not the only problem. The employment rate is very low in Turkey. Experts argue that the employment rate will not increase unless certain policies targeting this problem are implemented.
"Even the last six years that Turkey had a higher growing rate in the economy, the employment rate was low," said Başlevent, adding that this was not due to the recent economic crisis. "We cannot foresee the future of the service sector; as technology is rapidly developing, some sectors need less people to operate," said Başlevent, claiming that the technological development across the world may bring lower and lower employment rates.
Experts agreed that Turkey would face the problem of supporting an aging population in the next 30 years. They also agreed, however, that encouraging people to have more children cannot compensate for this. They suggested other solutions instead, such as giving impetus to the policies to create more employment and providing a higher quality of education all around Turkey.