US still lacks clear Afghan and Pakistani strategy

As Pakistan fights "for its survival" against Taliban militants, its stanch ally, the United States, still lacks a clear-cut strategy to defeat Islamists in the country and in neighboring Afghanistan, according to analysts and academics. Despite U.S. President Barack Obama’s new strategy placing Pakistan at center stage and including extra troops for Afghanistan, Washington has not yet clarified its thinking about recent developments in Pakistan, which pose grave threats to the American military campaign in Afghanistan, experts argued.

Last week, Pakistan’s army launched a punishing offensive in the Swat Valley, a former tourist resort in the northwest part of the country, 130 kilometers from the capital, after the collapse of a February peace pact between the government and the Taliban. Islamabad has labeled its assault on the Taliban as "a battle for its own survival" and Washington has said it wants to see a sustained operation in Swat and surrounding districts, which have been a safe haven for fighters blamed for the spiraling violence.

The U.S. administration has not yet fully finalized the exact framework of its political and military strategies for the region, Hasan Selim Özertem of the Ankara-based think tank International Strategic Research Organization, or USAK, told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review. "We should bear in mind the fact that Pakistan differs greatly both from Iraq and Afghanistan," Özertem said. Sinan Oğan, the head of the Turkish Center for International Relations and Strategic Analysis, agreed, adding, "Washington may have to confront more serious problems and daunting risks in Afghanistan and Pakistan than it has faced in Iraq." Highlighting the severity of problems Pakistan has faced in various realms, Özertem said, "Pakistan seriously carries the risk of becoming another failed state."

When asked whether they envision a quick defeat of the Taliban in Swat, experts predicted that inconclusive battles would persist, and that there would be no easy victory over the Islamists. "There is no quick-fix solution to Swat or any insurgency. It has to be a long war, which must be fought with a comprehensive strategy," Syed Saleem Shahzad, the Pakistan bureau chief for Asia Times Online, said in an e-mail interview with the Daily News.

Added Pepe Escobar, a columnist specializing in the region: "Pakistan should set up a very quick victory against the Taliban and then immediately try to strike a peace deal with reconcilable elements. This is the only way to isolate extremists and reduce their influence."

Nuclear concerns
Western nations are also concerned about the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, and about keeping it out of the hands of the Taliban. But, many experts share the view that these fears are largely baseless. Mustafa Kemal Dağdelen from the Eurasia Strategic Studies Center, or ASAM, called such concerns "short-sighted" considering the existence of "a strong state tradition" in Pakistan.

"As long as Pakistan’s army remains determined not to let the nuclear weapons and technology get into the hands of the Taliban, the risk is reduced," former BBC journalist and researcher Deepak Tripathy said via e-mail. But he also sounded a more cautionary note when he added, "The motives of everyone in the military are not known."

Some experts also underscored Washington’s role in the strengthening of extremism in Pakistan, and mentioned Pakistan’s battle with India over the Kashmir issue as being another major factor behind the resurgence of radicalism in the Muslim country.

Umer Chaudhry, a lawyer and political activist based in Lahore, had bitter words for the U.S. strategy in the region, depicting Washington as the main culprit behind the resurgence of military extremism. "In order to strive for stabilization for the region, Pakistan needs to dissociate itself from the U.S. and devise an independent strategy."