RESULTS ON TURKEY'S LOCAL ELECTIONS

The party that has ruled Turkey since 2002, increasing its votes in each election, appeared set to lose 16 mayoral seats. Playing the expectation game, AKP’s failure to build on its 47 percent national victory in 2007, falling in some once-loyal constituencies below 40 percent, is certain to stir debate in the coming days about the party’s prospects to continue its dominance of Turkish political life.

One surprise was the closely watched bellwether of Diyarbakir, the center of political strength for the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party, or DTP more than 65 percent with all the votes counted.

After the AKP trimmed DTP strength in the national elections in 2007, and in light of the AKP government’s launching the country’s first Kurdish TV channel just weeks before the vote, many expected a further slide for the DTP. In fact, the symbol of Kurdish political identity in Turkey was moving toward a resounding success, carrying nearly 80 percent of the vote in some initial ballot counts.

The biggest upset of the night appeared to be Antalya, a Mediterranean city where the AKP’s Mayor Menderes Turel was seen as a shoe-in in light of a host of high-profile public works projects, including new roads and a public tram that have been popular with residents.

But a switch of party labels in Antalya appears in store as CHP candidate Mustafa Akaydin, a well-known former university rector leads the race with more than 40 percent to Turel's 35 percent with 99 percent of the ballots counted.

Turkey's northwestern and western provinces were dominated by CHP, AKP lost ground against DTP in the southeastern provinces and also in the northern regions. But AKP kept its strongholds in central Turkey.

A smaller win

Political observers were keen also to note the performance of parties in provincial assembly races, the local administrative councils across the country. They are seen as a better forerunner of national sentiment than mayoral races. Results in those races above or below the AKP’s 47 percent in 2007 national elections will be carefully scrutinized in the days to come. According to unofficial results with 96.6 percent of votes counted, the AKP had obtained slightly above 39 percent of local assembly votes, as the main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, had more than 23 percent. Opposition Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, had some 16 percent of votes, and the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party, or DTP, had around 5.3 percent, while the Saadet (Felicity) Party, or SP, had nearly 5.2 percent of the vote. Great Union Party, or BBP, whose leader Muhsin Yazıcıoğlu died in a helicopter crash last week, had more than 2 percent.

In aggregated mayoral contests, the AKP swept ahead with 40.2 percent of the votes; the nearest contender CHP had 28.2 percent, the MHP had 14.8 percent, the DTP had 4.9 percent, and the Felicity Party, or SP, had 4.7 percent.

In the 2007 general elections, the AKP obtained 46.6 percent of votes nationwide, the CHP won 20.9 percent, and the MHP received 11.3 percent, while the DTP gained 5.2 percent. In the 2004 local elections, the AKP took 40.2 percent of mayor offices nationwide, while the CHP had 20.7 percent, the MHP had 10.1 percent and the DTP grabbed 4.7 percent. In the same local elections, provincial assemblies were distributed among the AKP with 41.7 percent, the CHP with 18.2, the MHP with 10.5 percent and the DTP with 5.2 percent. The AKP had sent its candidates to 1,773 mayor offices, the CHP had 467 mayor seats, the MHP acquired 242, and the DTP had 53 mayor offices.

Surprises and landslides

Turkey witnessed a breathtaking race in ballot counts throughout a heated election night, focusing on especially large metropolises like Istanbul and Ankara. A close race took place between Istanbul AKP candidate Kadir Topbas and CHP’s Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Topbas reached 44.3 percent as vote counting nears close, while Kilicdaroglu followed with 36.9 percent.

In Ankara, another city of major importance for parties, compared to the 2004 elections, support for Melih Gokcek in Ankara appears to have declined by nearly 20 percentage points, with the AKP candidate gaining 38,5 percent.

CHP Izmir mayoralty candidate Aziz Kocaoglu, the favorite in the city of 2.5 million voters, reached 53.5 percent, followed by the AKP’s Taha Aksoy by 32.2 percent.

The rivalry between the AKP and the DTP yielded interesting results from the east and the Southeast. For example, the DTP’s candidate, the favorite of Diyarbakir, Osman Baydemir, took more than 65 percent of votes. Baydemir’s closest rival, the AKP’s Kutbettin Arzu, remained at 31.5 percent.

Election data from Eskisehir suggested there would be no surprise, as DSP candidate Yılmaz Buyukersen gained 51.4 percent of votes, winning the race there. His rival, AKP’s Hasan Gonen, took 37.2 percent. A noteworthy detail was that the CHP had merely 2.8 percent of votes despite the party had nominated a candidate in Eskisehir.

Behind the decline

One of the main reasons for the drop in votes for the ruling party, according to experts, is the economic crisis that caused thousands of people to lose their jobs. The second reason is that the opposition parties nominated the right people in the right places, just like Kilicdaroglu, Karayalcin from the CHP and Yavas from the MHP. For example, Akaydin, the CHP’s Antalya candidate, nearly doubled his party’s votes when compared with the 2007 elections.

In the southeast, the DTP preserved its mayoralties despite the ruling party’s hard push.

“This is normal for the ruling party to lose some of its votes to the opposition parties not only because the attrition of power in the last six years but also because of the current economic crisis,” said Erol Tuncer, chairman of the Association of the Economic and Social Studies, or TESAV.