High tension returns to Turkish domestic affairs

Early signs that 2008 would be a tense year came at the start of February when Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan announced he would launch an initiative to remove the headscarf ban at universities, a highly sensitive issue in the country's founding principles.

An AKP-sponsored, nationalist MHP-supported bill to lift the ban was pushed to the fore of the parliamentary agenda. The controversial bill incited fierce debate in Turkey and emerged as the start of a polarization that was to deepen throughout the year.

The bill was easily and overwhelmingly passed by parliament. The main opposition party leftist Republican People’s Party (CHP) immediately responded by challenging the bill in the Constitutional Court.

President Abdullah Gul's approval of the bill came on virtually the same time and day as another event which emerged that would dominate the country's agenda.

On that day in February, the Turkish army launched a cross-border operation to crack down on the terror organization, PKK -- the first such operation in more than a decade.

This week-long operation in the winter of the 2008 was the start of a new phase in Turkey's fight against the PKK and in its relations with the Baghdad government and the regional administration in northern Iraq.

As the year moved into spring, the fight against terror was replaced by a series of crucial high profile legal processes and court cases.

The most important of these being the closure case filed against the ruling AKP in March. The case was filed in an unexpected move by the country’s chief prosecutors who accused the ruling party of being the "focal point of anti-secular activities".

The filing of the closure case accelerated another controversial legal process. The so-called Ergenekon case was widened in March with the detainment of prominent journalists, academics and intellectuals, all known for their fierce opposition of the ruling party.

Turkey’s Constitutional Court, in the first week of June, annulled the bill that would lift the headscarf ban in universities on the grounds that such a practice would harm the principles of secularism.

Although many considered the headscarf decision would deal a blow to the ruling party's survival chances in the closure case, the AKP narrowly avoided a ban in a surprising, yet relieving ruling by the top court.

Both decisions however are being interpreted as red lines drawn for the AKP, which came under fire over its policies, stance on underestimating the economic crisis, and its toughened rhetoric.

The tumultuous 12-months of 2008 are set to leave a serious legacy for the coming year, which will see local elections being held in March. Almost all observers, experts and analysts agree that 2009 is likely to be a tough year in terms of the economy, as well as policy. A look back at the outgoing year can offer some incites into understanding the possible points of contention or clashes that could emerge in 2009.

Here is a summary of the events that shaped 2008:

HEADSCARF RULING: The renewed attempt to lift the decades-old headscarf ban came after a response from Erdogan to a question during a press conference in Spain's capital Madrid in early February. Erdogan responded, "So what if it is a political symbol" to a question on the headscarf ban. The nationalist MHP immediately extended its support to Erdogan's remarks, forcing the AKP to prepare a bill amending the constitution for lifting the ban.

Although experts and observers in Turkey believe the ban should be lifted, they agree that the timing was wrong given the sensitive conjuncture in Turkey due to the rising Islamism in AKP's policies. The bill was approved by parliament and the president. The leftist CHP immediately applied to the court for the cancellation of the law.

In June, the Constitutional Court handed down its decision to annul the bill. In its historic decision, the court made reference to the crucial Article 2 of the Turkish Constitution, in which the country’s secularism has its legal grounds. Article 2 of the constitution describes Turkey as a "secular and democratic Republic," and Article 4 says the first three articles cannot be amended or even proposed to be amended.

The headscarf bill was cited as evidence by the chief prosecutor in the case filed for the closure of the AKP.

CLOSURE CASE: The case sent shock waves throughout Turkey as well as the international community. Turkey's chief prosecutor, Abdurrahman Yalcinkaya, filed the closure case against the AKP on the grounds that the party had became the focal point of anti-secular activities and demanded 71 party officials, including Erdogan and Gul, be banned from politics for five years. The prosecutor showed statements made by Erdogan and other party officials, attempts to lift the headscarf ban, as well as certain questionable practices of local administrators, as evidence backing his claims.

The European Union threatened to suspend Turkey’s accession negotiations, while opposition parties expressed their uneasiness over the case submitted to the court. The case paralyzed the country and frightened foreign investors as the global economic crisis loomed.

The court process lasted 5-1/2 months, making it the fastest finalized closure case in the country's history. The case concluded with the Constitutional Court narrowly ruling to reject the demand of the prosecutor, instead issuing a "serious warning" to the ruling party.

Six of the 11 members said the AKP had become the focal point of anti-secular activities; one member, the chairman Hasim Kilic, said the case should be rejected and the remaining four members also admitted that the party is focal point of anti-secular activities but not in an extent to deserve to be banned. In other words 10 members of the Court said AKP had taken steps that harm the secularism principle in the country.

Both the headscarf and closure case rulings are widely accepted as the drawing of red lines for the AKP, suggesting that crossing them would create problems.

ERGENEKON CASE: Another case that dominated the agenda of 2008, a year full of legal processes, was the so-called Ergenekon operation. Although the investigation was launched in 2007, the operation and the process accelerated and gained pace throughout the year.

The operation started with the discovery of 27 hand grenades in a house in Istanbul. More than 100 people were subsequently charged with forming an illegal organization to provoke a series of incidents that would pave the way for a military coup. Two retired generals, some former army officers, journalists and academics were among those included in the allegations.

The trial of suspects charged in the case started in October, as prosecutors came under fire for the delayed process in preparing the indictment. The indictment came more than a year after the operation started when high-profile detainees placed the case in the spotlight.

Ergenekon has divided the country. One group believes the operation is an important step to enhance Turkey's democracy and to bring an end to military coups, while the other sees the AKP government of using the case to suppress opposition - given that those detained are known opponents of the ruling party.

The operation gained pace a week after the closure case against the AKP was filed. Erdogan has claimed the closure case was filed to punish the AKP over its determination to crack down on the "Ergenekon gang".

FIGHT AGAINST TERROR: Turkey's fight against the PKK also intensified in 2008 with the army implementing every means, including ground and air forces, extending its battle against the terror organization beyond the country's borders.

Turkish fighter jets had launched numerous air operations against PKK positions in northern Iraq throughout the year. The United States, who controls Iraqi air space, had provided Turkey with real time intelligence. Turkey's air operations against PKK positions are expected to continue into 2009; however, the stakes are seen to rise as control of Iraqi air space transfers back to the Baghdad government, obliging Ankara to obtain its permission for future operations.

In its struggle with the PKK in 2008, Turkey launched a major ground operation into northern Iraq, in addition to numerous others within its own borders. The military said 240 terrorists and 24 soldiers were killed in the week long operation in February. According to the army’s figures released in early December, 670 terrorists were killed, 214 captured and 165 surrendered in 2008.

BLACK CLOUDS OVER ERDOGAN: Since taking office in 2002, this past year could be seen as the thorniest so far for Erdogan and his AKP government. Erdogan has had to deal with domestic, international and economic issues, in addition to the risk of being banned from politics. The government failed to meet expectations regarding necessary reforms, blaming the closure case for paralyzing its efforts. Yet the government was again unsuccessful in addressing long-awaited problems even after surviving the close case.

In 2008 corruption allegations surrounded the prime minister and his party, while Erdogan toughened his rhetoric over the media and launched a very public war against some press organs inciting fears regarding that it would harm democracy in Turkey. Erdogan called for a boycott of Turkey's largest media holding, Dogan Group, over its coverage of a charity fraud scandal in Germany. The Turkish public still awaits the government to take steps against those involved in the corruption claims.

His clash with the country’s media was not the only issue that brought the prime minister under fire both domestically and internationally. Erdogan toughened his rhetoric on the Kurdish issue and declared that he shares the same views as the nationalist party leader on the issue. The same foreign media organs and institutions that once hailed Erdogan's leadership and supported his policies, turned their back on the prime minister.

Erdogan also lost many allies within the party. Abdullatif Sener, the former State Minister, resigned from his posts in the AKP to form a new political party. Two of his top advisers, Reha Camuroglu and Cuneyd Zapsu quit their posts, while two other key figures of the party, Saban Disli and Dengir Mir Mehmet Firat resigned after corruption allegations surrounded them, triggering concerns that the prime minister had lost the architects of his successful policies of the previous term.

The coming year looks set to be even harder for both Prime Minister Erdogan and his government as the global economic crisis intensifies. The local elections in March 2009 will be a litmus test for the AKP, as well as Erdogan in the year ahead.