ANALYSIS - Strong opposition shakes AKP’s dominance

But it has to be noted that Sunday’s vote was for the local administrations. The majority voted for their local administrators instead of political parties, proving that nominations of strong political figures changed the overall picture.   �

Among the most striking examples across the country was the Republican People’s Party’s, or CHP, Istanbul mayoral candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who strengthened his reputation through his fight against corruption in politics, boosting the center left and partly center right votes.

In Ankara, the CHP’s Murat Karayalcin and Mansur Yavas, of the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, increased their votes against three-time winner Melih Gokcek from the AKP.

It seems the race for the mayoral seat in many cities will continue until the final minutes, but exit polls indicate that the AKP could lose around 15 cities to the opposition and decrease its votes from 46.6 percent to around 40 percent, compared with the general elections in 2007. The AKP won 57 cities in 2004 and is now at risk of losing 15 cities to opposition parties.

The AKP could lose Adana to MHP, Antalya to CHP, Aydin to CHP, Balikesir to MHP, Giresun to CHP, Isparta to MHP, Manisa to MHP, Osmaniye to MHP, Siirt to DTP (Democratic Society Party), Sivas to the BBP (Grand Union Party), Tekirdag to CHP, Usak to MHP, Van to the DTP, Yalova to the Democrat Party (DP) and Zonguldak to CHP.

The coastal towns and the region of Thrace appear to be returning to CHP, while the AKP seems to be contained in inner Anatolia.

Academics and veteran politicians appearing in the live election show broadcast on CNNTurk argued that the decrease in AKP’s votes is the result of several reasons:

• Since 2002, only two major political parties, the AKP and the CHP, were competing in the political arena. The AKP was leading the polls, increasing its votes in the last three consecutive elections. In the fourth, CHP managed to curb this trend and started to close the gap, thanks to its reputable candidates in many cities.

• MHP has increased its votes in many Anatolian cities, becoming a more visible contender appealing to center-right voters.

• In the southeast Anatolia, where the AKP was pushing hard to get the municipalities from DTP, it failed to succeed. On the contrary, the DTP seems to have increased its political visibility in the region where the AKP distributed social aid to the poor just before the elections. In addition, neither the government’s initiative of the start of Kurdish broadcasting on state TV (TRT-6) nor its recent attempts to extend an olive branch to Iraqi Kurds for cooperation produced sufficient results for the AKP.

• Support for the AKP in leading industrial cities, like Kayseri, Denizli and Bursa, decreased mostly because of the economic crisis. Although the AKP is less likely to lose the municipalities in these towns, the decrease in the votes would have tangible results over the general outlook on the results.

Saadet effect�

Early results maintained that the Saadet Party, or Felicity Party, has nearly tripled its votes in a short period of only one-and-a-half years. The source of this shift mainly lies in the change of leadership from veteran Necmettin Erbakan, who was the symbol of the Milli Gorus, National View, and political Islam in Turkey, to Numan Kurtulmus, a modern face appreciated even by young conservatives.

Emerging new leaders for opposition

For many, the performances of the CHP’s Kilicdaroglu in Istanbul and the MHP’s Yavas in Ankara are enough for them to be the best candidate for the leadership of their parties. Both Kilicdaroglu and Yavas helped their parties boost votes in two of the largest towns of Turkey.

Styles did matter as well

Sedat Ergin, editor-in-chief of daily Milliyet, claimed that one of the factors that caused the decrease in the AKP’s votes was Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s nervous style during the election campaign. “I think the prime minister will need to evaluate his style of conducting politics after these elections,” he said.