Erdogan's reaction unlikely to have direct impact on Turkey-Israel ties

Tayyip Erdogan's reaction sent shockwaves in the Turkish foreign ministry. But it is unlikely to reduce the level of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Israel to the extent of recalling the ambassador in Tel Aviv, diplomatic sources said.

The phone conversation between Erdogan and Israeli President Shimon Peres is another sign that the mutual relations will not be affected by the incident, sources added.

On the other hand, sources warn that the incident might have indirect impacts on the issues that interest Turkey. Here are the major issues that might be effected by the incident, according to diplomatic sources:

1. The Jewish lobby in the U.S. might withdraw its years-long efforts to prevent the U.S. President to use the word "genocide" in his message regarding the 1915 incidents.

2. A possible attempt in the U.S. Congress to recognize the 1915 incidents as "Armenian genocide" will pass easily as the Jewish lobby withdraws its support to Turkey's arguments.

3. Israel could raise its voice in the argument that compares its struggle with Hamas to Turkey's fight against the terror organization PKK. The Jewish lobby might withdraw its support to Turkey in its struggle with PKK in Europe as well as the U.S.

4. This incident might have a negative impact on Turkey-Armenia relations. The Armenian diaspora could garner the support of the Jewish lobby.

5. This might end Turkey's "mediation" efforts in the world especially in the Middle East.

6. The Davos crisis might harm Turkey's image of a "neutral country" in the UN Security Council.

Photo: AFP